Investment Style: Moderate Allocation
The Balanced Fund returned +0.75% in the third calendar quarter, compared to +2.37% for the Blended Index (60% S&P 500 and 40% Bloomberg Barclays Intermediate U.S. Government/Credit). For the calendar year to date, the Balanced Fund returned +4.13%, compared to +6.50% for the Blended Index.
Calendar Year-to-Date Contributors
Redwood Trust (RWT, Financial) invests in mortgage-related and other real estate-related assets, and is engaged in residential and commercial mortgage banking activities. Redwood recently took meaningful steps to right- size its cost and business structure in light of market conditions. After a successful repositioning of the company’s mortgage-banking business and associated expense infrastructure, Redwood’s leaner and more nimble platform is well positioned to execute longer-term strategic initiatives intended to enhance growth opportunities and future earnings power. We believe Redwood Trust remains competitively advantaged as a residential mortgage credit investor and is well positioned to benefit from potential government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) reform and the eventual revitalization of private-label residential securitization. Trading under book value and generating a dividend yield of nearly 8%, the stock continues to represent a compelling investment value.
Range Resources (RRC, Financial) is an independent producer of natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) based in Fort Worth, Texas, with operations in the Marcellus shale and emerging Terryville field. Range’s stock cooled some during the third quarter following a strong rebound during the first half of the year. As expected, Range completed its purchase of Memorial Resource Development during mid-September, adding another sizeable low-cost, high-return natural gas asset in northern Louisiana to its prolific Marcellus acreage position. An improved balance sheet and the opportunity to produce significant quantities of natural gas near growing demand centers at rates of return similar to the Marcellus are clear positives from the Memorial transaction. Overall, we believe the backdrop for the most efficient natural gas producers remains favorable in the intermediate term; though weather continues to pose near-term risks, given elevated gas storage levels. We believe Range shares are worth between $48-50 share.
Texas Instruments (TXN, Financial) is one of the largest Analog and Embedded Semiconductor manufacturers globally. Texas Instruments designs, makes and sells semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers across the world. Analog and embedded content is found in just about every electronic device made, including automobiles. Texas Instruments has continued to benefit from investor recognition of the company’s execution, disciplined capital allocation (returning all excess cash to shareowners) and the potential that the market for analog semiconductors has become slightly less cyclical as the industry has matured and consolidated.
Calendar Year-to-Date Detractors
Allergan (AGN, Financial) is a global specialty pharmaceutical company focusing on the development, manufacturing, marketing and distribution of brand name, biosimilar and over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products. One week after closing the sale of Actavis generics to Teva Pharmaceuticals, Allergan reported mildly disappointing top-line results for the quarter. Importantly, however, Allergan’s “core” products continue to grow nicely, with five of the company’s seven core therapeutic categories growing by double digits (in constant currency) versus the prior year. Our base case valuation of $350-360 per share does not depend on Allergan hitting CEO Brent Saunders’ goal of double- digit organic growth. However, strong, high single-digit organic sales growth appears achievable, as the company’s recently launched products continue to scale. One near-term positive of a lower share price is that Allergan’s $5 billion in share repurchases between now and year end will go further, and deployment of a portion of the company’s nearly $28 billion in cash remains a possible catalyst for the stock. The re-emergence of drug pricing as a political issue is not surprising to us as we enter the home stretch of the presidential election. We believe Secretary Clinton’s plan to control and eventually lower prescription drugs costs could negatively impact Allergan’s long-term earnings trajectory (perhaps by $2-3 per share on a base of $18), should she win the election, but with the stock at $240, we believe the risk of permanent loss is low. In short, Allergan’s risk/reward ratio (upside to base case vs. downside to low case) continues to be skewed in favor of the long-term owner.
Express Scripts (ESRX, Financial) is the largest independent pharmacy benefits manager (PBM) in the United States, helping health benefit providers improve access to (and the affordability of) prescription drugs. As the U.S. election enters its final stages, pharmaceutical manufacturers have shouldered a significant portion of the public’s frustration with the growing lack of affordability in healthcare. In recent weeks, several drug companies have attempted to shift the conversation by pointing fingers at PBMs and other “middlemen” as contributing to (as opposed to minimizing) rising prescription drug costs. Express Scripts and its peers provide a necessary and valuable service to plan sponsors, constructing custom plan designs that balance customer desires for access, cost and flexibility. Providing the absolute lowest cost for each drug utilized is not often the sponsor’s only (or even primary) goal. Additionally, competitive intensity across the industry is high, with no less than two (and in most cases three) potential PBM models to choose from for managing drug costs. We believe Express Scripts keeps a reasonable amount of the savings it generates for clients (we estimate between 10-15%) and that demand for its services will remain high as cost challenges persist. Express Scripts’ shares currently trade at a meaningful discount to our estimate of intrinsic value.
Calendar Year Detractors (Continued)
QVC Group is owned by Liberty Interactive. QVC is an American television network and multinational corporation specializing in televised and online shopping experiences. Shares of QVC Group fell after management indicated that its U.S. business had experienced significant sales headwinds, which are likely to continue into the next quarter. QVC’s U.S. business, which has not seen a sales decline since the Great Recession, appears to be tracking down in the mid to high single- digits, as its fashion business has slowed and a large beauty vendor is dealing with customer complaints on its hair care products. Importantly, we don’t view these issues as a sign of the QVC model suddenly being broken. QVC’s customer retention and loyalty remain strong, as does viewership of their network. Additionally, the international businesses appear unaffected by the current U.S.-centric slowdown. Although the decline in QVC shares is disappointing, we believe management will take advantage, growing their per share business value by continuing to execute their share repurchase strategy.
Quarterly Contributors
Liberty Global is the largest international cable company, with operations in 14 countries providing video, broadband Internet, fixed-line telephone and mobile services to its customers. As the worst of the Brexit fears began to abate (the United Kingdom represents roughly 38% of Liberty Global’s cash flow generation), shares of Liberty Global recovered some of their losses of the prior quarter. Shares also likely benefited from the EU’s approval of the previously announced formation of a 50/50 joint venture with Vodafone combining Liberty’s strong cable and broadband businesses with Vodafone’s mobile offering to create a more competitive “converged” bundle. We remain confident of continued growth for Liberty Global’s cable offerings and management’s ability to deliver operationally.
Mastercard (MA, Financial) operates the world’s second-largest payment network and one of the best known global brands. During the quarter, shares rose as investors applauded continued payment volume growth and a slightly improved economic global outlook. Mastercard is among the most attractive businesses we own. Its network is well entrenched within the plumbing of payment systems across the globe. The transition from cash to digital forms of payment provide growth opportunities, while the core business produces healthy doses of excess cash flow with modest reinvestment requirements.
Texas Instruments - Please refer to the Calendar Year-to-Date synopsis.
The trick is to boldly take advantage of the rare, great buying opportunities and to not “give back” the profits by taking unnecessary risks when the odds are unfavorable.
Click to read Value Matters: 3Q16 Letter to Investors
Quarterly Detractors
Express Scripts - Please refer to the Calendar Year-to-Date synopsis.
QVC Group - Please refer to the Calendar Year-to-Date synopsis.
Twenty-First Century Fox (FOXA, Financial) is a diversified media and entertainment company. Shares of Fox declined in the wake of the company’s fiscal fourth quarter earnings report. The good news was continued strength in distribution revenues earned by its suite of Pay-TV networks around the world as well as a resilient ad market in the U.S. Unfortunately, Fox’s international ad revenues slowed considerably due to weakness in Northern Europe and India, rising only 1% in local currency after seven straight quarters of very strong, double- digit growth. Additionally, Fox’s three major summer film releases, X-Men: Apocalypse, Ice Age: Collision Course, and Independence Day: Resurgence, all underperformed expectations. Moreover, management de-emphasized share repurchase within their capital allocation plans, preferring to preserve flexibility to either invest in the business organically (e.g., increasing investment in original content at the National Geographic channel) or to make acquisitions. Despite a more challenging international ad market and disappointing box office results, we continue to believe the underlying business is sound.
New Equity Holdings
Oracle (ORCL, Financial) is the market share leader in sales of database software and is number two in enterprise software, globally. Oracle has moved aggressively to rewrite its enterprise applications, which were previously available for on premise installation, as Software as a Service (SaaS) products. The company has gained significant traction in moving customers to SaaS and we believe will gain share in the overall enterprise applications market. Oracle recently announced the availability of its Database as a Service offering, which it believes will enable customers to move their database workloads to the Oracle Cloud. We believe the company will grow as its new applications gain acceptance with its large base of customers.
Eliminated Equity Holdings
Motorola Solutions - We sold Motorola Solutions at a gain as the stock approached our business value estimate after the company reported solid quarterly earnings.
Equity Commonwealth - We sold Equity Commonwealth at a gain as management continued to effectively rationalize the asset portfolio and the stock approached our business value estimate.
LiLAC Group - We sold this recently-distributed tracking stock in July to focus our Liberty Global investment in the company’s core European operations, which we think trade more cheaply.
National CineMedia - We sold National CineMedia at a gain as the stock rose in anticipation of the company’s second quarter earnings release.
