Let me check my list:
The Olympics? Nubile Chinese child-athletes took the lion’s share of the medals, but Baltimore hometown hero Mike “The Fish” Phelps stood on the top tier more often than any other human ever.
The Presidential election? A done deal back in November. Heck, in my neck of the woods, sulky Republicans were already sporting “Impeach Obama” bumper stickers as early as October.
The Inauguration? In-the-tank reporters gushed on every cable channel over how Obama knew the oath of office better than Justice Roberts. (Oh, like he hasn’t been practicing in front of a mirror since he was five.)
So what’s left to hyperbolize over? I guess it’s time to write about the Super Bowl.
Vegas Forecasts a Lousy 2010!
Not only does this annual gladiatorial contest give columnists like me an excuse to moralize ad nauseum regarding our national obsessions with fame, violence, pulchritude and beer, the Super Bowl supposedly offers up an astonishingly accurate leading indicator for the stock market. The idea is that an NFC win indicates a bull market in the coming year, while an AFC victory forecasts a bear market.
Scoff if you will, but aficionados of Bowl Apocrypha and barflies across the country brag of 80% accuracy.Correlate this trend with Vegas’ book making machine, add in a tumbler of single malt scotch, and one might even be tempted to push one’s forecast out years or even decades. Currently the odds on the New England Patriots winning a year from now are 6-1, indicating a miserable Christmas come 2010.Can’t you just hear your grizzled old statistics professor ranting about undersized data pools and how “correlation does not equal causation?” He’s most probably right, so let’s set aside the whole notion of “Winner-As-Stock-Market-Indicator.”
The Beer Market Loses Its FizzBesides, the whole play-off structure pretty much guarantees that most of the country doesn’t give a fig who wins anyway, as their home team was most likely eliminated back in December. We all know that the real reason folks watch is the ads.
NBC Universal (private) claims to have already sold some 85% of their available 30-second slots at some $3 million per ad. This actually beats last year’s $2.7 million price tag. That’s what they say anyway. I’d be curious to see how many of those ads were booked months ago by outfits that are now either dead or dying. The two biggest categories of Bowl ads are cars and beer, a peculiar mix that would get one arrested on any other occasion. Beer is frequently described as “recession proof.”
The folks in the corner suites at such outfits as SABMiller (SAB.LSE), Carlsberg A/S (DCARLB: Copenhagen) certainly wish that were true. Unfortunately, this particular recession has taken the beery breeze out of even this sector’s sails. SABMiller reports a 1% drop in lager sales in the fourth quarter of 2008, while Carlsberg is cutting 274 jobs as a hedge against “uncertainty and risk.Will a flat beer market make for a dull Super Bowl? Those European folks at
InBev NV/SA (Private) who bought up Anheuser Busch last year assure us that we will be treated to a veritable Clydesdales fest. The Bud Frogs? Not so much.
GM Goes MIAThere
will be a few conspicuous absences this year. As I mentioned, car ads are the other major player. However, there is no way in hell you can describe folks like GM (GM, Financial), Ford (F, Financial) and Chrysler (Private) as “recession proof” or even “recession resistant.” Sacrificial lambs would more apt. Or perhaps maybe “burnt offerings.”
Seeing as how GM is already making noises that it will need a great deal more government cash very, very soon if it is to survive till spring, it would seem somehow inappropriate for them to dole out their last few million on Super Bowl ads. Besides, the only ad they’ve got right about now brags as to how they only sell “manly” trucks, with none of the supposedly effeminate options Ford carries – for the same money.
So, GM will pass on the Bowl this year for the first time in decades. They are also skipping out on other high-profile, high-priced events like the Emmys and the Oscars. On the one hand, this is probably a prudent thing to do. On the other hand, my experience as a business owner tells me that companies that stop advertising are pretty much screwed.
FedEx Is Absolutely Positively in Trouble
Another major player who will not be advertising during this Bowl year is FedEx (FDX, Financial). After two-odd decades of pounding its “we deliver it yesterday” message, the shipper has announced “times have changed.” It is also cutting top exec pay and scotching contributions to the employee 401(k) fund.Again, I note that while these are all prudent – perhaps even overdue – measures, they are also indicators of extreme distress. With this weakness in mind, both FedEx and GM are on my short list at WaveStrength Options Weekly. The former position is showing 55% gains already – with a strong possibility of doubling that in the near future – and the latter is ripe for entry as I sit to write.Sincerely yours,
Adam Lass
WaveStrength Options Weekly
Taipan Publishing Group
www.taipanpublishgroup.com
The Olympics? Nubile Chinese child-athletes took the lion’s share of the medals, but Baltimore hometown hero Mike “The Fish” Phelps stood on the top tier more often than any other human ever.
The Presidential election? A done deal back in November. Heck, in my neck of the woods, sulky Republicans were already sporting “Impeach Obama” bumper stickers as early as October.
The Inauguration? In-the-tank reporters gushed on every cable channel over how Obama knew the oath of office better than Justice Roberts. (Oh, like he hasn’t been practicing in front of a mirror since he was five.)
So what’s left to hyperbolize over? I guess it’s time to write about the Super Bowl.
Vegas Forecasts a Lousy 2010!
Not only does this annual gladiatorial contest give columnists like me an excuse to moralize ad nauseum regarding our national obsessions with fame, violence, pulchritude and beer, the Super Bowl supposedly offers up an astonishingly accurate leading indicator for the stock market. The idea is that an NFC win indicates a bull market in the coming year, while an AFC victory forecasts a bear market.
Scoff if you will, but aficionados of Bowl Apocrypha and barflies across the country brag of 80% accuracy.Correlate this trend with Vegas’ book making machine, add in a tumbler of single malt scotch, and one might even be tempted to push one’s forecast out years or even decades. Currently the odds on the New England Patriots winning a year from now are 6-1, indicating a miserable Christmas come 2010.Can’t you just hear your grizzled old statistics professor ranting about undersized data pools and how “correlation does not equal causation?” He’s most probably right, so let’s set aside the whole notion of “Winner-As-Stock-Market-Indicator.”
The Beer Market Loses Its FizzBesides, the whole play-off structure pretty much guarantees that most of the country doesn’t give a fig who wins anyway, as their home team was most likely eliminated back in December. We all know that the real reason folks watch is the ads.
NBC Universal (private) claims to have already sold some 85% of their available 30-second slots at some $3 million per ad. This actually beats last year’s $2.7 million price tag. That’s what they say anyway. I’d be curious to see how many of those ads were booked months ago by outfits that are now either dead or dying. The two biggest categories of Bowl ads are cars and beer, a peculiar mix that would get one arrested on any other occasion. Beer is frequently described as “recession proof.”
The folks in the corner suites at such outfits as SABMiller (SAB.LSE), Carlsberg A/S (DCARLB: Copenhagen) certainly wish that were true. Unfortunately, this particular recession has taken the beery breeze out of even this sector’s sails. SABMiller reports a 1% drop in lager sales in the fourth quarter of 2008, while Carlsberg is cutting 274 jobs as a hedge against “uncertainty and risk.Will a flat beer market make for a dull Super Bowl? Those European folks at
InBev NV/SA (Private) who bought up Anheuser Busch last year assure us that we will be treated to a veritable Clydesdales fest. The Bud Frogs? Not so much.
GM Goes MIAThere
will be a few conspicuous absences this year. As I mentioned, car ads are the other major player. However, there is no way in hell you can describe folks like GM (GM, Financial), Ford (F, Financial) and Chrysler (Private) as “recession proof” or even “recession resistant.” Sacrificial lambs would more apt. Or perhaps maybe “burnt offerings.”
Seeing as how GM is already making noises that it will need a great deal more government cash very, very soon if it is to survive till spring, it would seem somehow inappropriate for them to dole out their last few million on Super Bowl ads. Besides, the only ad they’ve got right about now brags as to how they only sell “manly” trucks, with none of the supposedly effeminate options Ford carries – for the same money.
So, GM will pass on the Bowl this year for the first time in decades. They are also skipping out on other high-profile, high-priced events like the Emmys and the Oscars. On the one hand, this is probably a prudent thing to do. On the other hand, my experience as a business owner tells me that companies that stop advertising are pretty much screwed.
FedEx Is Absolutely Positively in Trouble
Another major player who will not be advertising during this Bowl year is FedEx (FDX, Financial). After two-odd decades of pounding its “we deliver it yesterday” message, the shipper has announced “times have changed.” It is also cutting top exec pay and scotching contributions to the employee 401(k) fund.Again, I note that while these are all prudent – perhaps even overdue – measures, they are also indicators of extreme distress. With this weakness in mind, both FedEx and GM are on my short list at WaveStrength Options Weekly. The former position is showing 55% gains already – with a strong possibility of doubling that in the near future – and the latter is ripe for entry as I sit to write.Sincerely yours,
Adam Lass
WaveStrength Options Weekly
Taipan Publishing Group
www.taipanpublishgroup.com
