Two years ago, we initiated a 9.9% position worth over $1.5 billion in Baxter (NYSE:BAX). An under-earner in the medtech industry with margins trailing its peers, Baxter was about to spin out
its biopharma business, Baxalta. Shortly after the spin-off, Baxter’s long-time CEO announced his intention to retire. We believed these two major changes at the company presented an opportunity to create a more focused Baxter, cure its under-earning problem, and even make it an industry leader in operational performance – if the company took the right steps. Third Point’s Munib Islam joined the Baxter Board of Directors in September 2015. Munib also participated on the search committee that successfully recruited former Covidien CEO José “Joe” Almeida as Baxter’s new CEO starting on January 1, 2016.
Mr. Almeida’s sweeping changes to Baxter’s business over the past 18 months have created meaningful shareholder value. His tenure thus far is a case study on how leadership and cultural change can be transformational. Prior to his arrival, Baxter had guided to 2016 operating margins of 10%, growing to 14% by 2020. Under Mr. Almeida’s leadership, Baxter delivered 2016 operating margins of 13.6% and in May 2016, updated 2020 guidance to 17-18% operating margins. Due to continued strong operational performance, Baxter subsequently upgraded its 2020 guidance to ~20% operating margins on the Q2 2017 earnings call. The increases have been driven by multiple factors including:
- Cost cutting initiatives: Mr. Almeida instituted a Zero-Base Budgeting process that had immediate impact: SG&A spend declined over 10% in 2016 vs pro forma 2015 levels, while R&D spend also declined year over year in absolute dollars.
- Addition by subtraction: As part of an extensive portfolio review, Mr. Almeida madedecisionsto exitcertain unprofitable product lines/markets and legacy R&D projects with negative expected value.
- Focus on high gross margin businesses: Baxter supplemented its generic injectable drug pipelinethrough three transactions and strategic partnerships (including the proposed acquisition of Claris Injectables). As the pipeline matures and products are approved, the high gross margin products will naturally improve Baxter’s underlying operating margin.
Baxter’s free cash flow generation has benefited from the improved operational efficiency. The prior free cash flow guidance was for $400 million in 2016 growing to $1.1 billion by 2020. Under Mr. Almeida, Baxter reported $ 935 million in 2016 free cash flow that is forecast to grow to ~$2.0 billion by 2020. Through the Zero-Base Budgeting process, the company has cut capex spending by nearly $200 million to $720 million in 2016 and forecasts continued reduction in capex through 2020.
In addition to continued margin expansion and improving free cash flow generation, there is renewed anticipation about how Baxter might deploy its pristine balance sheet. Since the spinoff, Baxter successfully monetized its Baxalta retained stake and currently sits at a zero net debt position; this contrasts with medtech peers who carry 1-2 turns of net leverage. Mr. Almeida has significant capacity to create value for shareholders through a combination of business development, share repurchases, and potential dividend increases.
Investors have clearly approved of Mr. Almeida and Baxter’s improved performance. Between January 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017, Baxter delivered a Total Shareholder Return (TSR) of 61%, nearly 3x the S&P 500 return of 22.4%. Despite the 18 month outperformance, Baxter’s forward EV / EBITDA multiple has remained largely unchanged at 12.5-13.0x; stock appreciation has been driven almost exclusively by an increase in Baxter’s underlying earnings power. Looking forward, we are confident that Mr. Almeida can combine operational efficiency with an unlevered balance sheet to drive continued earnings growth which – even absent any multiple expansion – should drive strong returns for Baxter shareholders.
From Dan Loeb's second quarter 2017 shareholder letter.
