The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) sets the official dates for the beginning and end of recessions. One might imagine that these are not exciting meetings, but the next few may be livelier. That's because the major indicators they follow to determine whether the economy is in expansion or is contracting are sending off conflicting messages. One of the major indicators that the group follows is consistent with an economic recovery. One is unimpressive, but not strongly at odds with a recovery. The two remaining indicators imply that the economy may still be in recession.
This divergence has led committee members to express different views of where the economy is in the business cycle. Following the November employment report (but before last week's disappointing job loss) Robert Hall, who currently heads the Business Cycle Dating Committee, said that the report "makes it seem that the trough in employment will be around December. The trough in output was probably sometime in the summer. The committee will need to balance the mid-year date for output against the end-of-year date for employment.”
Earlier this month Martin Feldstein, the former president of the NBER, focusing on the job market, said that “the current downturn is likely to last much longer than previous downturns ... We will be lucky to see the recession end in 2009.”
Finish reading the complete analysis at www.hussmanfunds.com.
This divergence has led committee members to express different views of where the economy is in the business cycle. Following the November employment report (but before last week's disappointing job loss) Robert Hall, who currently heads the Business Cycle Dating Committee, said that the report "makes it seem that the trough in employment will be around December. The trough in output was probably sometime in the summer. The committee will need to balance the mid-year date for output against the end-of-year date for employment.”
Earlier this month Martin Feldstein, the former president of the NBER, focusing on the job market, said that “the current downturn is likely to last much longer than previous downturns ... We will be lucky to see the recession end in 2009.”
Finish reading the complete analysis at www.hussmanfunds.com.
