Following the January employment report, I noted that "If we get perhaps a month with about 400,000 or fewer weekly new claims for unemployment, that is about the point where we would expect positive prints for monthly job growth, on average. Even then, however, the difficulty will be speed of recovery. I am hopeful for a stabilization of the job market, but that I suspect that last month's dip in the unemployment rate was an anomaly. Given what remains a difficult credit outlook, I suspect that we have observed a lull rather than a reversal, and that we'll most likely see an 11-12% unemployment peak before a sustained downturn is observed."
Presently, the 4-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment is running at 468,500. This level is normally consistent with monthly payroll job losses on the order of 80,000. Against that, however, we are likely to get significant short-term job growth from census hiring, which can be expected to exert a positive impact on non-farm payrolls through mid-year. I continue to view the 4-week average of initial claims as one of the more informative series to monitor regarding the employment situation.
Click here to read the complete Hussman Weekly Market Commentary
Presently, the 4-week moving average of initial claims for unemployment is running at 468,500. This level is normally consistent with monthly payroll job losses on the order of 80,000. Against that, however, we are likely to get significant short-term job growth from census hiring, which can be expected to exert a positive impact on non-farm payrolls through mid-year. I continue to view the 4-week average of initial claims as one of the more informative series to monitor regarding the employment situation.
Click here to read the complete Hussman Weekly Market Commentary
