China’s recovery from the global recession has been sharp and striking, but we have been hearing different views on China’s recent economic performance. The skeptics argue that China has generated dangerous bubbles in its quest for growth amidst a slowdown in the developed world, its key market. The optimists point to China’s strong underlying growth dynamics and sound macro policies as factors behind its strong recovery, and do not see bubbles as a material risk in the economy. Given China’s importance to emerging markets and developed markets—both key areas of focus in our asset-class research—we wanted to get in-depth views on China from two very knowledgeable foreign investors: the optimistic Robert Horrocks from Matthews International and the more pessimistic Vitaliy Katsenelson from Investment Management Associates, who has studied, written, and spoken about the global economy and China, specifically. Excerpts from that in-depth discussion, conducted in Litman/Gregory’s offices on April 13, are shared below.
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