Given the current economic conditions and arrival of the internet, many predicted the collapse of small newspaper publications. Lee Enterprises (ticker: LEE) has opposed this viewpoint for many years. In fact, they have been free cash flow positive in each of the past 10 years! This has been done in part through cost cutting and improved advertising sales techniques.
This stock was found using the GuruFocus Discounted Free Cash Flow Screener. The screener estimates Lees value at $33.62 per share. Lee has an ROA of 1.4% and recently closed at $3.04. While the valuation may not be exact, the apparent value is worth a deeper look. A more detailed valuation is done at the end of this article.
The notion that the internet is going to destroy newspapers companies seems to be turning out to be a myth. According to independent research, it is estimated that Lee's newspapers and online sites reach approximately 68% of adults in its larger markets in an average week. The simple fact is that when local news happens, local reporters report it and local people read it. This is not something that will change. Whether it be a car accident, a tornado, or layoffs at a local employer, local reporters have to generate the news reports. What has happened with many print publications is that they are duplicated via an online presence. And the sustainability appears to be there.
Also, keep in mind that Lee is not simply newspapers. They also provide print publications such as car sale specific publications along with job opportunity specific publications and rental publications.
Regarding online content, Lee is the primary provider of local news in their markets. Lee online sites provide 43% of local news to citizens. While local TV station online content provides only 21%. The giants, Google and Yahoo only provide 12% and 9% of local new respectively. Those looking for local news on Google and Yahoo are often directed to Lee's online sites.
Lee also utilizes Yahoo's advertising engine. When reading articles about cars in a given market, Yahoo's advertising engine (which lee uses) will provide advertisements for local car dealers. So, the technology that is intended to deliver local advertising through digital means is beginning to mature.
While online content is free, Lee is testing pay-for online content in one market. Also, they are doing a trial with Kindle for pay-for subscriptions in their two largest markets. Other e-reader formats in addition to kindle are being investigated. What is happening to the newspaper industry is not the technological based extinction of it. It is simply being transformed by technology in a manner to diversify the method of content delivery. It is no longer the simple, boring toll bridge that many investors think of from the past. It is still a toll bridge of sorts though. If you want local news, there still will only be a few places to look in many towns and cities. And because of this, there is still a moat around local news providers.
Regardless of the delivery mechanism of the media, one thing has not changed. Lee's primary source has been advertising revenues. Within advertising, retail advertising (example: local businesses, brokerage ads, etc) is the top revenue generator. Classified ads produce the second most amount of revenue. The third greatest source of revenues is online ad revenue. Lee has teamed with Yahoo in order to help create targeted advertising within their online presence. Lee expects classified ad based revenue to improve with an improving economy due to an increase in the number of help wanted ads. Local businesses will also be more likely to advertise their services as the economy improves. The worse may be behind Lee and many other companies like it.
Regarding the possibility of paying for online content, Lee currently maintains a free content posture. There is no reason to think this will change as it would probably turn off the readers in the smaller communities it serves. Lee typically services small and medium sized end markets.
Lee has undergone several cost cutting measures. They have reduced the page size of their print publications which reduces manufacturing costs. The change in size has been warmly received by its readers.
The following charts summarizes the past 10 years of free cash flow data.
This stock was found using the GuruFocus Discounted Free Cash Flow Screener. The screener estimates Lees value at $33.62 per share. Lee has an ROA of 1.4% and recently closed at $3.04. While the valuation may not be exact, the apparent value is worth a deeper look. A more detailed valuation is done at the end of this article.
The notion that the internet is going to destroy newspapers companies seems to be turning out to be a myth. According to independent research, it is estimated that Lee's newspapers and online sites reach approximately 68% of adults in its larger markets in an average week. The simple fact is that when local news happens, local reporters report it and local people read it. This is not something that will change. Whether it be a car accident, a tornado, or layoffs at a local employer, local reporters have to generate the news reports. What has happened with many print publications is that they are duplicated via an online presence. And the sustainability appears to be there.
Also, keep in mind that Lee is not simply newspapers. They also provide print publications such as car sale specific publications along with job opportunity specific publications and rental publications.
Regarding online content, Lee is the primary provider of local news in their markets. Lee online sites provide 43% of local news to citizens. While local TV station online content provides only 21%. The giants, Google and Yahoo only provide 12% and 9% of local new respectively. Those looking for local news on Google and Yahoo are often directed to Lee's online sites.
Lee also utilizes Yahoo's advertising engine. When reading articles about cars in a given market, Yahoo's advertising engine (which lee uses) will provide advertisements for local car dealers. So, the technology that is intended to deliver local advertising through digital means is beginning to mature.
While online content is free, Lee is testing pay-for online content in one market. Also, they are doing a trial with Kindle for pay-for subscriptions in their two largest markets. Other e-reader formats in addition to kindle are being investigated. What is happening to the newspaper industry is not the technological based extinction of it. It is simply being transformed by technology in a manner to diversify the method of content delivery. It is no longer the simple, boring toll bridge that many investors think of from the past. It is still a toll bridge of sorts though. If you want local news, there still will only be a few places to look in many towns and cities. And because of this, there is still a moat around local news providers.
Regardless of the delivery mechanism of the media, one thing has not changed. Lee's primary source has been advertising revenues. Within advertising, retail advertising (example: local businesses, brokerage ads, etc) is the top revenue generator. Classified ads produce the second most amount of revenue. The third greatest source of revenues is online ad revenue. Lee has teamed with Yahoo in order to help create targeted advertising within their online presence. Lee expects classified ad based revenue to improve with an improving economy due to an increase in the number of help wanted ads. Local businesses will also be more likely to advertise their services as the economy improves. The worse may be behind Lee and many other companies like it.
Regarding the possibility of paying for online content, Lee currently maintains a free content posture. There is no reason to think this will change as it would probably turn off the readers in the smaller communities it serves. Lee typically services small and medium sized end markets.
Lee has undergone several cost cutting measures. They have reduced the page size of their print publications which reduces manufacturing costs. The change in size has been warmly received by its readers.
The following charts summarizes the past 10 years of free cash flow data.