Companies Ranked by Business Predictability

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What is Predictability Rank?

GuruFocus recently conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy "buy good companies at fair prices" for the years 1998-2008. We focused on the companies that Warren Buffett likes, which are the companies that have predictable and proven earnings. For details, go to: GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank.

From this study we have developed the concept of Predictability Rank of businesses. We have found strong correlations between the Predictability of Businesses and the long term return of stocks, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4 -Star	3.5-Star	3 -Star	2.5-Star	2 -Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
Average Annualized Gain (Jan. 1998- Aug. 2008)	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%
% that are in loss with 10-year holding period	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%

We can clearly see that companies with higher Predictability Rank had much better stock performances. The possibility of losing money with long term holding period is also greatly reduced.

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Predictability	10-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%)	5-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%)	12-M EBITDA Growth Rate (%)	Market Cap ($mil)	P/E	PE/5-Y EBITDA Growth Rate	Yield
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	34.2	6.3	-6.2	37102.922	17.30	2.75	1.98
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	17.7	16.1	18.3	8097.526	30.49	1.89	0.30
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	80.4	142.8	-82.9	60.874	0.00	0.00	0.00
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	23.1	23.1	5	5431.271	20.58	0.89	0.00
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	22.7	12.3	-5.8	1767.609	24.39	1.98	0.00
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	12.5	17.7	7.9	4050.885	19.72	1.11	2.31
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14.6	5.5	6.5	50652.816	16.42	2.99	3.85
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	18.9	6.6	13.6	1146.210	18.45	2.80	0.84
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	16.9	17.5	-15.2	419.195	25.45	1.45	1.73
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	10.9	20.2	17.5	14763.694	52.08	2.58	2.20
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	15.9	11.1	8.8	5333.062	20.24	1.82	1.38
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	13.3	0.5	-10	744.961	33.22	66.44	1.58
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	27.2	12.1	-15.2	186908.281	12.05	1.00	1.58
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	27.2	12.1	-15.2	184956.313	11.85	0.98	3.34
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	20.7	15.9	-49.1	219.677	42.74	2.69	0.00
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	4	4.1	-29.4	75.389	37.59	9.17	3.13
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	2	11.8	-72.7	18980.258	526.32	44.60	0.06
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	7.4	6.8	8.4	12147.246	24.04	3.54	1.46
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	8.3	42.4	4.9	37691.961	13.87	0.33	3.96
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	7	17	16.3	2590.900	1111.11	65.36	0.00
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14.5	26.6	4.1	14756.152	23.75	0.89	0.30
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	12	31.1	-0.3	1326.827	17.48	0.56	0.08
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14.5	26.6	4.1	14674.427	23.26	0.87	0.20
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	11.7	6.5	6.4	2418.082	20.88	3.21	0.00
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch) Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14.9	1.8	-4.6	7862.937	10.42	5.79	2.45
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	14.5	7	49.3	72460.313	6.44	0.92	0.50
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	28.5	15.3	11.3	29207.297	33.90	2.22	0.20
Currently 3/5 Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	3.8	11.9	1.4	1793.953	21.05	1.77	0.16
Currently 2.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 2.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 2.5-Star stocks: 7.3% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 18%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	2.5	8.5	4.6	4360.936	12.12	1.43	0.40
Currently 2.5/5 Business Predictability Rank: 2.5-Star Back Testing Results: Average gain of all 2.5-Star stocks: 7.3% per year. % of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 18%. Read more: What is Predictability Rank? Performances of real portfolio Top Ranked Predictable Companies	25.7	9.6	13.9	6739.627	31.25	3.26	0.77