Companies Ranked by Business Predictability

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What is Predictability Rank?


GuruFocus recently conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy "buy good companies at fair prices" for the years 1998-2008. We focused on the companies that Warren Buffett likes, which are the companies that have predictable and proven earnings. For details, go to: GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank.

From this study we have developed the concept of Predictability Rank of businesses. We have found strong correlations between the Predictability of Businesses and the long term return of stocks, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank

5-Star

4.5-Star

4 -Star

3.5-Star

3 -Star

2.5-Star

2 -Star

1-Star (non-predictable)

Average among all

Average Annualized Gain (Jan. 1998- Aug. 2008)

12.1%

10.6%

9.8%

9.3%

8.2%

7.3%

6.0%

1.1%

3.1%

% that are in loss with 10-year holding period

3%

10%

8%

9%

11%

18%

16%

45%

37%


We can clearly see that companies with higher Predictability Rank had much better stock performances. The possibility of losing money with long term holding period is also greatly reduced.

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Symbol Company Predictability 10-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%) 5-Y EBITDA Growth Rate (%) 12-M EBITDA Growth Rate (%) Market Cap ($mil) P/E PE/5-Y EBITDA Growth Rate Price DCF DCEarning Yield
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
8.60 4.709.607281.87922.104.7045.8026.2023.903.12
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
20.60 29.5066.0015193.30868.902.341.460.000.302.12
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
20.60 29.5066.0015136.07368.902.3429.090.005.701.99
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
17.60 23.9029.503110.71117.000.7122.873.8010.504.24
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
5.10 14.703.606692.71012.900.8851.25111.2049.300.96
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch)
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
11.50 2.80-46.20250.74884.8030.2915.34-3.202.700.60
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
8.70 29.20114.80536.09613.400.4617.126384.702245.901.22
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
12.90 13.0013.60744.70012.200.940.300.000.807.00
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
7.80 21.1034.807976.90011.800.5622.740.0017.901.80
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch)
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
40.10 4.30-35.801738.78015.203.5343.66-9.6022.501.37
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
2.70 17.6021.602545.52325.401.4457.7824.6021.701.42
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch)
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
2.40 3.90-12.30268.09718.304.6917.200.008.302.65
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
15.40 21.2015.906970.80918.100.8532.820.5014.300.00
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
1.60 25.80242.0033259.77010.200.4031.0619.9020.000.00
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
5.70 14.702.403280.14421.901.4973.400.0039.500.26
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
28.30 19.2043.607094.27110.800.56433.3069.70891.600.00
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch)
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
19.80 4.00-30.40426.9294.101.030.771.201.202.34
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
7.40 7.802.104979.00011.901.5349.790.0054.801.95
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch)
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
7.20 8.10-3.7014224.97617.102.119.195.306.407.26
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
14.50 6.100.0058.86030.805.052.410.201.502.26
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch)
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
7.20 8.10-3.7013525.33617.102.1187.3852.5063.106.10
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
23.30 12.5024.8011534.75017.901.4389.8119.70145.601.22
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch)
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
9.80 4.90-5.40746.96821.204.3317.979.6014.204.40
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
23.30 12.5024.8011238.06517.901.438.752.0014.601.30
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch)
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
17.30 6.30-8.003389.50537.205.9080.5756.9044.100.00
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch)
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
18.50 33.90-3.00666.36923.200.680.750.000.204.14
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch)
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
8.10 2.20-3.9014668.05524.4011.0993.3546.3071.402.35
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
26.20 41.90115.70276.2807.300.1713.107.1014.300.00
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star (On Watch)
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
8.10 2.20-3.9014754.69724.4011.0993.9046.3071.401.98
Premium Member OnlyPremium Member Only
  • Currently 3/5
Business Predictability Rank: 3-Star
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 3-Star stocks: 8.2% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 11%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
8.70 4.8015.104689.01123.704.9456.6025.6024.101.55

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