Companies Ranked by Business Predictability

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What is Predictability Rank?


GuruFocus recently conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy "buy good companies at fair prices" for the years 1998-2008. We focused on the companies that Warren Buffett likes, which are the companies that have predictable and proven earnings. For details, go to: GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank.

From this study we have developed the concept of Predictability Rank of businesses. We have found strong correlations between the Predictability of Businesses and the long term return of stocks, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank

5-Star

4.5-Star

4 -Star

3.5-Star

3 -Star

2.5-Star

2 -Star

1-Star (non-predictable)

Average among all

Average Annualized Gain (Jan. 1998- Aug. 2008)

12.1%

10.6%

9.8%

9.3%

8.2%

7.3%

6.0%

1.1%

3.1%

% that are in loss with 10-year holding period

3%

10%

8%

9%

11%

18%

16%

45%

37%


We can clearly see that companies with higher Predictability Rank had much better stock performances. The possibility of losing money with long term holding period is also greatly reduced.

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