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ReplyRommy - 5 months agoHow do I create portfolio using GureFocus? - User Comments for
| Market Cap | 614 M | P/E(ttm) | 13.50 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enterprise Value | 521.69 M | P/B | 3.70 |
APEI- NAS (USA)
American Public Education, Inc.
American Public Education, Inc.
Back Testing Results:
Average gain of all 1-Star stocks: 1.1% per year.
% of Stocks that are in still loss if held for 10yrs: 45%.
Read more:
What is Predictability Rank?
Performances of real portfolio
Top Ranked Predictable Companies
$34.82
Avg Vol (1m): 128,075
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American Public Education, Inc. : 0.0 ( as of Dec13)
* All numbers are in millions except for per share data APEI 10-Y Financials »Definition
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stocks intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
Discount rate: 12%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years or 20%, whichever is smaller
Growth stage lasts 10 years
Terminal growth rate = 4%
The terminal stage last 10 years
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the earnings per share is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Explanation
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.Beaware
A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.You can screen stocks that trade below their intrinsic value (DCF) and Intrinsic Value (Discounted What you need to know about the DCF model:
The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
Earnings) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount from their Intrinsic Value (DCF) and Intrinsic Value (Discounted Earnings) can be found in the screen of Undervalue Predictable Companies.
Related Terms
Intrinsic Value (DCF Projected), Intrinsic Value (DE), Free Cash Flow* All numbers are in millions except for per share data
American Public Education, Inc. Annual Data
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| Dec04 | Dec05 | Dec06 | Dec07 | Dec08 | Dec09 | Dec10 | Dec11 | Dec12 | Dec13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intrinsic Value (DCF) |
American Public Education, Inc. Quarterly Data
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| Sep11 | Dec11 | Mar12 | Jun12 | Sep12 | Dec12 | Mar13 | Jun13 | Sep13 | Dec13 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intrinsic Value (DCF) |
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