Comerica (NYSE:CMA) is the largest bank headquartered in Texas; it has a meaningful footprint in California and Michigan. Among the root causes of stock price dislocation was its exposure to Energy and low interest rates, which caused minor earnings per share estimate cuts for 2015. We believe those risks are mis-understood and overstated. While only 7% of CMA’s loan portfolio is linked to energy or “energy related” companies, it has been a source of investor scrutiny and confusion. Investors keep expecting net charge offs to rise, but they have remained marginal. Why? Comerica has an impressive underwriting history and we remain confident history will repeat itself. 95% of its energy loans outstanding are secured. Also, all underwriting decisions were based on “proved reserves” which should mitigate charge-off risk. Charge-offs will rise if the brutal decline in energy prices continues for extended periods of time, but we expect the risks to be manageable and much better than what is priced into the current stock price.
Few banks would benefit more from a rise in interest rates than CMA as 85% of its loan book is floating rate. The Federal Reserve’s reluctance to raise rates has been frustrating, but it will come. When it does, it will have a material impact on CMA’s earnings power.
In our view, CMA has one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry with a Tier 1 Common Equity ratio exceeding 10%. Despite the interest rate headwinds, it is still compounding at high single rates (including dividends). With a little help from rates, that should jump to double digits rates. Yet, CMA common stock only trades at slight premium to tangible book value. We like the potential of getting paid through book value compounding and multiple expansion with limited financial risk. CMA is one of those situations. At slightly over 1x tangible book value of 34.35, we think CMA could also be an accretive takeover target for a number of large US or foreign banks.
From Third Avenue Management (Trades, Portfolio)'s Value Fund fourth quarter 2015 portfolio manager commentary.
