It’s a new year and we’re interested in hearing how GuruFocus members fared in 2015, a rather tough year for the market. What were your best holdings, which stocks were your largest detractors and what is your best idea for 2016? Share your picks in the comments area below.
The gurus posted performances all across the spectrum. Carl Icahn (Trades, Portfolio), who was recently voted Guru of the Year by a landslide, had a busy 2015 with a multitude of activist moves involving companies like AIG (AIG, Financial), Pep Boys (PBY, Financial) and Cheniere Energy (LNG, Financial). Despite being down 2.8% through the third quarter, Icahn’s fund is still outperforming the S&P 500, which declined 8% over the same time frame.
Icahn also made headlines for releasing in September an ominous 15-minute video titled “Danger Ahead,” warning of the perils of low interest rates and bubbles in art, real estate and bonds. Some derided Icahn’s statements as concerns that “either don’t exist or are so tiny they don’t belong in a serious conversation.” Time will tell whether Icahn is correct.
On the other hand, Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman (Trades, Portfolio) found himself in a true contrarian position, fiercely defending his large position in the embattled Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX, Financial). According to Ackman’s recent letter to shareholders, 2015 is likely to be the worst performance year in its history.
According to GuruFocus’ Guru Scoreboard, Frank Sands (Trades, Portfolio)’ Select Growth Portfolio has posted excellent returns in the year leading up to his third quarter filing, with the top 10 holdings returning a value weighted average of more than 37%. His largest holding, Visa (V, Financial), is up 17% over the past year.
But Westport Asset Management (Trades, Portfolio)’s Westport Fund by far had the best one-year performance up to the third quarter, with an average return of 120%. Tech stocks made the bulk of the portfolio, comprising at least 25% of assets in the year. Industrial is the second most-represented sector, though the percentage share has been reduced each quarter. Its largest holding is Universal Health Services Inc. (UHS, Financial), a company whose business predictability is rated 4.5 out of 5 stars by GuruFocus. The stock has held steady over the past year, appreciating just 3%.
For a global view on the new year, Ken Fisher (Trades, Portfolio), whom GuruFocus recently interviewed, released his “2016 portfolio playbook,” explaining his moderate bullishness. The Fisher investments CEO and Forbes columnist is overweighting America, South Korea and India.
“I’m overweight health care (primarily drugs) and to lesser degrees tech, consumer discretionary and financials (mainly banks). I’m underweighting staples and to greater degrees telecom, utilities, energy, industrials and materials,” Fisher wrote.
Share your best ideas with fellow GuruFocus readers below, and don’t forget to let us know how you did in 2015. We look forward to reading your thoughts.
