The prospects for several drug makers—and their investors—are likely to be affected as clinical trial results for key medications are reported this year. For an example of what a bad outcome can have on a company's share price, look no further than what happened to Eli Lilly and Co.'s (LLY, Financial) stock on Monday when the Indianapolis-based pharma company reported mixed results in tests of its Alzheimer's treatment. On the news, Lilly's shares took a haircut of nearly $20 to about $188.
Eli Lilly will get a chance to redeem itself when it also gets a readout this year on its drug for type 2 diabetes, tirzepatide, which the company sees as a possible companion to—or replacement for–its $5 billion diabetes treatment Trulicity. Fierce Biotech reported top-line data from the first trial for tirzepatid showed the drug was better at controlling blood glucose levels in type 2 diabetics and also reduced patients' body weights.
Trulicity is currently fighting for market share with Novo Nordisk's (NVO, Financial) Ozempic, among others. Lilly is hoping that the dual mechanism of tirzepatide will improve on existing medications and mitigate any deterioration of sales when Trulicity copycats hit the market. Pharmaceutical consultant Evaluate thinks tirzepatide could rake in as much as $3 billion in 2026.
Investors won't have to wait long for results from a phase 3 trial of Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.'s (BMY, Financial) psoriasis drug deucravacitinib; they should be revealed in a matter of weeks. There are plenty of drugs available to treat the skin condition, but the Bristol-Myers treatment is one of the new antibody therapies, meaning the drug can be delivered via injection.
Looming as a rival is a Pfizer Inc. (PFE, Financial) treatment for which phase 2 study results are due shortly. It doesn't seem to be a big concern to Bristol-Myers since deucravactinib is way ahead in its development. Evaluate predicts the drug's sales could reach nearly $2 billion in 2026. Sales could even be higher if the medication proves effective in tests against ulcerative colitis, Crohn's disease, systemic lupus erythematosus and psoriatic arthritis.
It makes sense that a successful drug trial is likely to have a bigger impact on the results for smaller companies. That's the case with Iovance Biotherapeutics Inc. (IOVA, Financial), which has a market cap of about $5 billion. The San Carlos, California-based cancer specialist is hoping its therapy for solid tumors will match the striking clinical results seen with CAR-T therapies for hematological cancers.
Iovance is going after some prominent cancers: head and neck, lung and cervical. Another reason for investors to consider Iovance is its potential as a buyout candidate. Rumors have persisted that Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD, Financial) and Takeda Pharmaceuticals Inc. (TAK, Financial) have the company in their sights.
Others who made Fierce Biotech's list of top data readouts in 2021 are:
- Sage Therapeutics Inc. (SAGE, Financial) and Biogen Inc. (BIIB, Financial) for antidepressant zuranolone.
- AstraZeneca (AZN) and Daiichi Sankyo Co. (TSE:5468) with Enhertu for breast and other cancers.
- Novartis (NVS) for cardiovascular medication Entresto.
- Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) and Bristol-Myers Squibb for cancer therapy bempegaldesleukin.
- CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) for drug for rare blood disorders.
- Gilead and Eli Lilly for Covid therapies.
Disclosure: The author has positions in Eli Lilly, Bristol-Myers, Gilead Sciences and Vertex Pharmaceuticals.
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