Undervalued Predictable Companies - Discounted Free Cash Flow and Discounted Earnings

GuruFocus uses two methods – the Discounted Cash Flow method and Discounted Earnings method – to determine if a company is undervalued or overvalued.

The companies with a “Discounted Cash Flow Discount (%)” higher than 0 are considered undervalued companies based on the Discounted Cash Flow method. If the Discount (%) is lower than 0, then the companies are considered overvalued based on the Discounted Cash Flow method. Please click to see how GuruFocus calculates Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF-based).

The companies with a “Discounted Earnings Discount (%)” higher than 0 are considered undervalued companies based on the Discounted Earnings method. If the Discount (%) is lower than 0, then the companies are considered overvalued based on the Discounted Earnings method. Please click to see how GuruFocus calculates Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings-based).

What are Undervalued-Predictable Companies & List of Undervalued-Predictable Stocks

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We applied the discounted cash flow and discounted earnings to the high Predictability Rank, and calculated the intrinsic values of the these companies. These are the companies that appeared to be undervalued as measured by discounted free cash flow model or discounted earnings model. The formula and methodology are described in What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety. The assumptions for the calculations are:

  1. We assumed a discount rate of 12%.
  2. The growth rate for the next 10 years are assumed to be the same as the average growth rate of the past 10 years. If the growth rate is higher than 20%, we will use 20%. If the growth rate is lower than 5%, we will use 5%.
  3. For the terminal values, we use 4% growth rate.
  4. In this page, we use TTM eps without NRI / free cash flow and 10-year compound earnings / free cash flow growth rate as default.

The intrinsic value of the companies are calculated with:

Intrinsic Value = Future Earnings at Growth Stage + Terminal Value

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Ticker Company Predictability Rank Price Discounted Free Cash Flow Discounted Earnings PE Ratio Dividend Yield %
Valuation Discount(%) Valuation Discount(%)
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$107.40$1,12790%$33768%12.682.35
$134.78$35061%$118-14%13.562.40
$155.21$39961%$22531%13.301.68
$457.65$1,16661%$96453%13.520
$105.65$24657%$20548%13.112.99
$35.97$6948%$10867%6.580
$165.97$28341%$25836%13.352.37
$30.82$5140%$4836%18.461.49
$52.39$8035%$6621%12.942.06
$144.15$21834%$117-23%15.570
$15.99$2227%$3858%7.110
$44.99$5924%$41-10%13.150
$278.14$35522%$80165%9.890
$12.38$1412%$11-13%14.230
$185.68$20811%$1850%22.131.99
$93.57$1028%$13028%20.521.45
$113.86$1205%$104-9%18.540.61
$39.47$414%$34-16%17.151.66
$115.48$1182%$91-27%22.550
$115.76$106-9%$1247%25.610.88
$198.28$161-23%$160-24%17.591.71
$61.08$49-25%$633%25.841.29
$109.42$81-35%$12915%18.581.83
$61.19$38-61%$52-18%241.45
$94.64$58-63%$74-28%28.251.65
$94.57$57-66%$88-7%20.111.72
$57.73$30-92%$49-18%25.323.49
$47.90$24-100%$6121%21.381.50
$3,983.60$1,942-105%$6,13235%18.490
$36.29$17-113%$8557%10.801.98
$272.98$121-126%$33819%23.020
$202$89-127%$2166%26.610.45
$29.84$12-149%$327%21.101.80
$430.77$169-155%$49413%24.810
$219.95$76-189%$182-21%34.470.95
$204.47$64-219%$2228%26.210.33
Total 36
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