The stock of Lennar (NYSE:LEN, 30-year Financials) appears to be significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $99.65 per share and the market cap of $30.4 billion, Lennar stock is estimated to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for Lennar is shown in the chart below.
Because Lennar is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 10.9% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 9.18% annually over the next three to five years.
Investing in companies with poor financial strength has a higher risk of permanent loss of capital. Thus, it is important to carefully review the financial strength of a company before deciding whether to buy its stock. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great starting point for understanding the financial strength of a company. Lennar has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.41, which is in the middle range of the companies in Homebuilding & Construction industry. GuruFocus ranks the overall financial strength of Lennar at 5 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Lennar is fair. This is the debt and cash of Lennar over the past years:
Companies that have been consistently profitable over the long term offer less risk for investors who may want to purchase shares. Higher profit margins usually dictate a better investment compared to a company with lower profit margins. Lennar has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $23.3 billion and earnings of $9.79 a share. Its operating margin is 15.25%, which ranks better than 77% of the companies in Homebuilding & Construction industry. Overall, the profitability of Lennar is ranked 8 out of 10, which indicates strong profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Lennar over the past years:
One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of Lennar is 10.9%, which ranks better than 67% of the companies in Homebuilding & Construction industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is 25.3%, which ranks better than 77% of the companies in Homebuilding & Construction industry.
Another way to evaluate a company's profitability is to compare its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it indicates that the company is creating value for shareholders. Over the past 12 months, Lennar's ROIC was 10.36, while its WACC came in at 8.34. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Lennar is shown below:
In conclusion, the stock of Lennar (NYSE:LEN, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks better than 77% of the companies in Homebuilding & Construction industry. To learn more about Lennar stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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