The stock of Natural Alternatives International (NAS:NAII, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $17.9 per share and the market cap of $113.8 million, Natural Alternatives International stock shows every sign of being significantly overvalued. GF Value for Natural Alternatives International is shown in the chart below.
Because Natural Alternatives International is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth.
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It is always important to check the financial strength of a company before buying its stock. Investing in companies with poor financial strength have a higher risk of permanent loss. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great way to understand the financial strength of a company. Natural Alternatives International has a cash-to-debt ratio of 1.02, which is in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. The overall financial strength of Natural Alternatives International is 7 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Natural Alternatives International is fair. This is the debt and cash of Natural Alternatives International over the past years:
Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. Natural Alternatives International has been profitable 9 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $148.4 million and earnings of $0.57 a share. Its operating margin of 3.59% in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. Overall, GuruFocus ranks Natural Alternatives International's profitability as fair. This is the revenue and net income of Natural Alternatives International over the past years:
Growth is probably one of the most important factors in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus' research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long-term performance of a company's stock. If a company's business is growing, the company usually creates value for its shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. Likewise, if a company's revenue and earnings are declining, the value of the company will decrease. Natural Alternatives International's 3-year average revenue growth rate is worse than 66% of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. Natural Alternatives International's 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -43.3%, which ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods.
Another way to look at the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital and the weighted cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. We want to have the return on invested capital higher than the weighted cost of capital. For the past 12 months, Natural Alternatives International's return on invested capital is 6.64, and its cost of capital is 6.40. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Natural Alternatives International is shown below:
In closing, the stock of Natural Alternatives International (NAS:NAII, 30-year Financials) appears to be significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks in the bottom 10% of the companies in the industry of Consumer Packaged Goods. To learn more about Natural Alternatives International stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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