The stock of Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be fairly valued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $237.7 per share and the market cap of $45.4 billion, Spotify Technology SA stock is believed to be fairly valued. GF Value for Spotify Technology SA is shown in the chart below.
Because Spotify Technology SA is fairly valued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be close to the rate of its business growth, which averaged 23.4% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 17.75% annually over the next three to five years.
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Since investing in companies with low financial strength could result in permanent capital loss, investors must carefully review a company's financial strength before deciding whether to buy shares. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage can give a good initial perspective on the company's financial strength. Spotify Technology SA has a cash-to-debt ratio of 1.70, which ranks worse than 73% of the companies in Interactive Media industry. Based on this, GuruFocus ranks Spotify Technology SA's financial strength as 5 out of 10, suggesting fair balance sheet. This is the debt and cash of Spotify Technology SA over the past years:
Investing in profitable companies carries less risk, especially in companies that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. Typically, a company with high profit margins offers better performance potential than a company with low profit margins. Spotify Technology SA has been profitable 0 years over the past 10 years. During the past 12 months, the company had revenues of $9.6 billion and loss of $3.935 a share. Its operating margin of -3.14% in the middle range of the companies in Interactive Media industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks Spotify Technology SA's profitability as poor. This is the revenue and net income of Spotify Technology SA over the past years:
One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of Spotify Technology SA is 23.4%, which ranks better than 72% of the companies in Interactive Media industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is 23.3%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Interactive Media industry.
Another way to look at the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital and the weighted cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. We want to have the return on invested capital higher than the weighted cost of capital. For the past 12 months, Spotify Technology SA's return on invested capital is -5.35, and its cost of capital is 8.75. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Spotify Technology SA is shown below:
In closing, The stock of Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT, 30-year Financials) appears to be fairly valued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is poor. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in Interactive Media industry. To learn more about Spotify Technology SA stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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