The stock of Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be fairly valued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $17.935 per share and the market cap of $40.6 billion, Kinder Morgan stock appears to be fairly valued. GF Value for Kinder Morgan is shown in the chart below.
Because Kinder Morgan is fairly valued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be close to the rate of its business growth.
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Since investing in companies with low financial strength could result in permanent capital loss, investors must carefully review a company’s financial strength before deciding whether to buy shares. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage can give a good initial perspective on the company’s financial strength. Kinder Morgan has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.04, which ranks worse than 87% of the companies in Oil & Gas industry. Based on this, GuruFocus ranks Kinder Morgan’s financial strength as 3 out of 10, suggesting poor balance sheet. This is the debt and cash of Kinder Morgan over the past years:
It poses less risk to invest in profitable companies, especially those that have demonstrated consistent profitability over the long term. A company with high profit margins is also typically a safer investment than one with low profit margins. Kinder Morgan has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $13.8 billion and earnings of $0.81 a share. Its operating margin is 31.59%, which ranks better than 88% of the companies in Oil & Gas industry. Overall, GuruFocus ranks the profitability of Kinder Morgan at 6 out of 10, which indicates fair profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Kinder Morgan over the past years:
Growth is probably one of the most important factors in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus’ research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long-term performance of a company’s stock. If a company’s business is growing, the company usually creates value for its shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. Likewise, if a company's revenue and earnings are declining, the value of the company will decrease. Kinder Morgan’s 3-year average revenue growth rate is in the middle range of the companies in Oil & Gas industry. Kinder Morgan’s 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is -3.8%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Oil & Gas industry.
Another method of determining the profitability of a company is to compare its return on invested capital to the weighted average cost of capital. Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. When the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it implies the company is creating value for shareholders. For the past 12 months, Kinder Morgan’s return on invested capital is 4.27, and its cost of capital is 5.48. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Kinder Morgan is shown below:
In short, the stock of Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI, 30-year Financials) is estimated to be fairly valued. The company's financial condition is poor and its profitability is fair. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in Oil & Gas industry. To learn more about Kinder Morgan stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.
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