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Group 1 Automotive Stock Is Estimated To Be Significantly Overvalued

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GF Value
Jul 16, 2021
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The stock of Group 1 Automotive (NYSE:GPI, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $164.74 per share and the market cap of $3 billion, Group 1 Automotive stock is believed to be significantly overvalued. GF Value for Group 1 Automotive is shown in the chart below.

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Because Group 1 Automotive is significantly overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be much lower than its future business growth, which averaged 3.8% over the past three years and is estimated to grow 3.15% annually over the next three to five years.

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It is always important to check the financial strength of a company before buying its stock. Investing in companies with poor financial strength have a higher risk of permanent loss. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great way to understand the financial strength of a company. Group 1 Automotive has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.03, which is in the bottom 10% of the companies in Vehicles & Parts industry. The overall financial strength of Group 1 Automotive is 5 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Group 1 Automotive is fair. This is the debt and cash of Group 1 Automotive over the past years:

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Companies that have been consistently profitable over the long term offer less risk for investors who may want to purchase shares. Higher profit margins usually dictate a better investment compared to a company with lower profit margins. Group 1 Automotive has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $11.2 billion and earnings of $19.314 a share. Its operating margin is 5.43%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in Vehicles & Parts industry. Overall, the profitability of Group 1 Automotive is ranked 8 out of 10, which indicates strong profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Group 1 Automotive over the past years:

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One of the most important factors in the valuation of a company is growth. Long-term stock performance is closely correlated with growth according to GuruFocus research. Companies that grow faster create more value for shareholders, especially if that growth is profitable. The average annual revenue growth of Group 1 Automotive is 3.8%, which ranks better than 72% of the companies in Vehicles & Parts industry. The 3-year average EBITDA growth is 16.2%, which ranks better than 83% of the companies in Vehicles & Parts industry.

Another way to evaluate a company’s profitability is to compare its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the ROIC is higher than the WACC, it indicates that the company is creating value for shareholders. Over the past 12 months, Group 1 Automotive’s ROIC was 10.62, while its WACC came in at 7.80. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Group 1 Automotive is shown below:

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In closing, the stock of Group 1 Automotive (NYSE:GPI, 30-year Financials) shows every sign of being significantly overvalued. The company's financial condition is fair and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks better than 83% of the companies in Vehicles & Parts industry. To learn more about Group 1 Automotive stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.

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