Since I wrote my original blind stock valuation over at my old blog, I’ve gotten a lot of requests to do another one. I think it’s a helpful exercise. So I will.
For those who don’t know, a blind stock valuation is when I “blind” you to the name of a stock. But I give you most of the important financial numbers. Based on the numbers, you try to value the stock.
Now, with the original blind stock valuation, I tried – unsuccessfully it turned out – to use a stock literally no one could recognize. I picked a water company on the island of Bermuda. Unfortunately, through the power of Google – someone was able to recognize the stock. But it took a lot of work. And most people were truly analyzing the stock blind.
Today, I think I’ve improved my identification countermeasures. But it’s still a real company. And it’s still possible you can recognize it. I hope you’ll resist the urge to try. And instead analyze this company without any idea what its name is.
It’s good practice.
Like last time, I’ve changed a single identifying detail that would bias you.
(Translation: I'm lying about one thing. And only one thing.)
When you’ve decided what the stock is worth, send your intrinsic value estimate along with an explanation of how you calculated it to:
[email protected]
I’ll post the best intrinsic value estimates. And explain why I liked them.
And now the stock you’ll be valuing blind:
That’s the income statement information you need.
Here’s the balance sheet:
The company has 32,324,445 shares outstanding.
Do you need anything else?
I don’t think so.
Assume the company has no debt. It pays normal taxes. It’s a U.S. company. And it’s financed entirely with common stock.
How much would you pay per share?
Email your best guess to: [email protected]
Or post your intrinsic value estimate on my GuruFocus message board.
Or you can Tweet your best guess. But at 140 characters, it’ll have to be a concise analysis.
At the start of June, I’ll write an article collecting everybody’s intrinsic value estimates and discussing the best analysis I got.
Read Geoff’s Other Articles
Ask Geoff a Question
Check out the Buffett/Munger: Bargain Newsletter
Check out the Ben Graham: Net-Net Newsletter
For those who don’t know, a blind stock valuation is when I “blind” you to the name of a stock. But I give you most of the important financial numbers. Based on the numbers, you try to value the stock.
Now, with the original blind stock valuation, I tried – unsuccessfully it turned out – to use a stock literally no one could recognize. I picked a water company on the island of Bermuda. Unfortunately, through the power of Google – someone was able to recognize the stock. But it took a lot of work. And most people were truly analyzing the stock blind.
Today, I think I’ve improved my identification countermeasures. But it’s still a real company. And it’s still possible you can recognize it. I hope you’ll resist the urge to try. And instead analyze this company without any idea what its name is.
It’s good practice.
Like last time, I’ve changed a single identifying detail that would bias you.
(Translation: I'm lying about one thing. And only one thing.)
When you’ve decided what the stock is worth, send your intrinsic value estimate along with an explanation of how you calculated it to:
[email protected]
I’ll post the best intrinsic value estimates. And explain why I liked them.
And now the stock you’ll be valuing blind:
| Sales | Gross Profit | EBITDA | EBIT | |
| 2001 | $44,286,012 | $11,460,244 | $3,633,007 | $3,365,477 |
| 2002 | $78,014,164 | $19,422,785 | $6,443,458 | $5,983,911 |
| 2003 | $124,889,141 | $31,798,906 | $10,302,090 | $9,509,399 |
| 2004 | $167,560,892 | $44,222,274 | $13,964,474 | $12,828,608 |
| 2005 | $236,209,000 | $59,618,000 | $15,527,000 | $14,008,000 |
| 2006 | $340,331,000 | $88,858,000 | $26,666,000 | $24,556,000 |
| 2007 | $478,807,000 | $126,138,000 | $36,995,000 | $33,724,000 |
| 2008 | $678,456,000 | $174,631,000 | $49,530,000 | $44,459,000 |
| 2009 | $900,298,000 | $239,236,000 | $69,295,000 | $59,891,000 |
| 2010 | $1,248,176,000 | $328,871,000 | $91,752,000 | $78,726,000 |
| 2011 | $1,643,199,000 | $435,397,000 | $123,063,000 | $105,087,000 |
That’s the income statement information you need.
Here’s the balance sheet:
| Receivables | Inventory | PP&E | Accounts Payable | Accrued Expenses | |
| 2001 | $212,532 | $10,654,640 | $3,079,607 | $3,760,511 | $874,688 |
| 2002 | $434,554 | $18,452,663 | $7,079,703 | $6,807,512 | $1,541,421 |
| 2003 | $1,114,203 | $29,427,119 | $13,233,161 | $8,000,282 | $2,378,301 |
| 2004 | $1,211,168 | $41,470,471 | $14,656,507 | $13,275,531 | $3,037,111 |
| 2005 | $1,407,000 | $50,582,000 | $19,157,000 | $14,090,000 | $4,163,000 |
| 2006 | $2,576,000 | $64,371,000 | $23,646,000 | $17,750,000 | $6,560,000 |
| 2007 | $2,708,000 | $88,815,000 | $29,169,000 | $28,054,000 | $8,338,000 |
| 2008 | $5,449,000 | $135,845,000 | $44,467,000 | $45,427,000 | $13,868,000 |
| 2009 | $5,398,000 | $172,640,000 | $62,763,000 | $65,001,000 | $19,411,000 |
| 2010 | $7,806,000 | $235,315,000 | $98,760,000 | $100,102,000 | $34,656,000 |
| 2011 | $12,666,000 | $280,021,000 | $116,781,000 | $97,445,000 | $46,604,000 |
The company has 32,324,445 shares outstanding.
Do you need anything else?
I don’t think so.
Assume the company has no debt. It pays normal taxes. It’s a U.S. company. And it’s financed entirely with common stock.
How much would you pay per share?
Email your best guess to: [email protected]
Or post your intrinsic value estimate on my GuruFocus message board.
Or you can Tweet your best guess. But at 140 characters, it’ll have to be a concise analysis.
At the start of June, I’ll write an article collecting everybody’s intrinsic value estimates and discussing the best analysis I got.
Read Geoff’s Other Articles
Ask Geoff a Question
Check out the Buffett/Munger: Bargain Newsletter
Check out the Ben Graham: Net-Net Newsletter
