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Sam Zell Investing in Black Swan Scenarios

November 16, 2012 | About:

One of the world's most famous real estate investors gave a presentation at the Invest for Kids Chicago conference. Sam Zell of Equity Group Investments presented a bearish future and recommended allocating capital to "black swan scenarios."

First of all, Zell thinks that the euro currency is imploding and the euro zone is heading towards a recession.

In the U.S. Zell is bearish on the fact that there is no will to embrace austerity measures to tackle the debt problems.

Finally, the emerging markets such as India and China can no longer be counted on for growth.

Zell cannot understand given the dire macro situation why stock prices and real estate prices are sky high. He would anticipate that there would be bargains all around the globe but that is not the case.

Essentially, he thinks that the world is being "flooded with dollars" and that is propping up asset prices.

Subsequently, Zell is investing in black swan scenarios. One might assume that these black swan scenarios are out of control inflation, a collapse in the U.S. bond market or major currency problems in the U.S.

Rating: 3.8/5 (6 votes)


Josh Zachariah
Josh Zachariah - 4 years ago    Report SPAM
A euro collapse wouldn't be a black swan event. Black swan events are things like 9/11 and the lehman collapse - events that generally come out of nowhere. A euro collapse has been talked about for well over a year and firms/governments have already prepared for it.

There was an interesting interview on Bloomberg Surveillance with Julian Robertson. He said that many hedge funds these days are in essence "disaster funds" that will only profit if disaster happens. If that's the case Zell's thesis is hardly novel.

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