For the first half of 2023, the Matthews China Fund (Trades, Portfolio) returned -12.69% (Investor Class) and -12.64% (Institutional Class), while its benchmark, the MSCI China Index, returned -5.39% over the same period. For the quarter ending June 30, 2023, the Fund returned -13.05% (Investor Class) and -13.06% (Institutional Class), while the benchmark returned -9.65%.
Market Environment:
The overall environment for China remained challenging during the first half of the year with continued negative headlines related to U.S. – China relations, Taiwan – China tensions and an overall bumpy corporate earnings growth story. Financial results in the first quarter were uneven with some sectors and industries recovering faster than others. Given the disruption experienced with much of the population contracting COVID, first quarter earnings were generally still on the weaker side. In areas of faster earnings recovery, many questioned if growth trajectory would be sustainable, as a lack of supportive policies continued to weigh on market sentiment. Given this environment, investors continue to be in profit taking mode despite the fact that some companies have delivered on earnings estimates. At the same time, the property market recovery has been volatile with general market conditions remaining soft. This part of China’s economy continues to be important in determining the stability of the country’s recovery and more monitoring of on-the-ground conditions are required.
Performance Contributors and Detractors:
From a sector perspective, the portfolio’s allocation and stock selection in information technology and an underweight to the materials sector contributed to relative performance during the first half of the year. On the other hand, an overweight allocation and stock selection within the consumer discretionary sector and an underweight and stock selection within communication services detracted from performance.
Among individual holdings, Petrochina (SHSE:601857, Financial) and Midea Group (SZSE:000333, Financial) were among the top contributors to performance. Petrochina is one of China’s largest state-owned, oil and gas companies. State-own companies (SOEs) in China have seen re-ratings this year due to their defensive nature and cheap valuations. In addition, there has been increased government support to improve valuations of SOEs. Many SOEs are increasingly becoming more market-oriented, and profit driven. This positive change could help with cementing the corporate earnings story for these companies and drive valuation re-rating. Midea is a dominant white goods manufacturer in China. Shares of the company have been defensive year to date due to resilient recovery in the sales of Midea’s air conditioning units, buoyed by a low base, pent-up demand and increased appetite for premiumization. Both valuations and dividend yields of the company are attractive as well, and while Midea is no longer growing at a fast pace, its dominance in the market and strong execution offers investors a stable rate of return, which is appreciated in the more volatile market environment we are experiencing today.
On the other hand, JD.com (JD, Financial), China’s leading e-commerce platform company known for its authentic products as well as fast and efficient product delivery, was the weakest contributor to performance. The company’s weaker-than-expected first quarter estimates and a conservative outlook caused market concerns in the first quarter. In addition, JD’s major shopping day, June 18, showed only moderate gross merchandise value (GMV) growth. However, shopping campaigns are year-round and consumers are also shopping year-round. While the company’s GMV growth continues to moderate, we find JD’s approach to focusing on optimizing various business units and providing best everyday prices to consumers to be balanced with its profitability goals and targets. The JD e-commerce platform continues to be an important one in China and market worries about competition is likely overdone. Meituan (HKSE:03690, Financial), China’s largest food delivery platform, also detracted from performance during the first half of the year. Meituan also has businesses catering to the promotional and advertising needs of restaurants, and travel and hotel booking services. The company’s shares have been under a lot of pressure given concerns about competition with ByteDance’s Douyin in both food delivery and in-store services. Given Douyin is a strong competitor, there could be some market share loss, but we feel that will be generally manageable. At the same time, Meituan could see operational improvements post COVID as food delivery might see less disruptions as more restaurants are up and running, and in-store dining and travel related services could see recovery.
Notable Portfolio Changes:
Overall, the number of names in the portfolio has decreased and there has generally been a consolidation of smaller, less than 1% positions in more expensive areas of the portfolio. Market correction has given us the opportunity to add to quality areas where valuations have come off meaningfully. The portfolio’s A-share exposure has trended down from the high thirties to low thirties percentage given more attractive valuations in the Hong Kong market and we have been adding to the portfolio’s Hong Kong-listed names.
During the year-to-date period, we added SOE names such as China Construction Bank (SHSE:601939, Financial) and PetroChina as we believe good quality SOE names could be more defensive and see valuations re-rating. We also added Kuaishou Technology (HKSE:01024, Financial) and JD Health (HKSE:06618, Financial) over the first half of the year. Platform companies such as Kuaishou and JD Health have seen valuations correct meaningfully, but the nature of these business still benefit from economies of scale and as these platforms stand to benefit as they get more sizable. Further, many platform companies continue to be on track to delivering better quality earnings and monetization.
Outlook:
Looking ahead, the earnings story should benefit from easier comparables with the second half of 2022. We expect earnings to continue to be a catalyst. However, given weak sentiment, China needs to deliver a very strong set of earnings to re-rate in a meaningful way, and we remain more cautious on that front and expect only a gradual recovery ahead. Variables to be mindful of include whether there will be more stimulus ahead and whether China’s property market conditions continue to improve. Sentiment on the ground remains weak, which could call for more supportive policies. At the same time, we continue to see more companies delivering on monetization and increased room for shareholder return as more companies consider buybacks and dividends. Geopolitics remain a relevant concern, and unfortunately, does not offer much optimism at the moment, leading to continued volatile market conditions.
All performance quoted is past performance and is no guarantee of future results. Investment return and principal value will fluctuate with changing market conditions so that shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the return figures quoted. Returns would have been lower if certain of the Fund's fees and expenses had not been waived. Please see the Fund's most recent month-end performance.
