Is Riot Platforms (RIOT) Too Good to Be True? A Comprehensive Analysis of a Potential Value Trap

Unmasking the Risks and Rewards of Investing in Riot Platforms

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Value-focused investors are always on the hunt for stocks that are priced below their intrinsic value. One such stock that merits attention is Riot Platforms Inc (RIOT, Financial). The stock, currently priced at $10.47, recorded a loss of 4.38% in a day and a 3-month increase of 2.89%. The stock's fair valuation is $18.1, as indicated by its GF Value.

Understanding the GF Value

The GF Value represents the current intrinsic value of a stock derived from our exclusive method. The GF Value Line on our summary page gives an overview of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on three factors: historical multiples (PE Ratio, PS Ratio, PB Ratio and Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow) that the stock has traded at, GuruFocus adjustment factor based on the company's past returns and growth, and future estimates of the business performance.

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Unraveling the Risks

However, investors need to consider a more in-depth analysis before making an investment decision. Despite its seemingly attractive valuation, certain risk factors associated with Riot Platforms should not be ignored. These risks are primarily reflected through its low Piotroski F-score and a Beneish M-Score of -1.42 that exceeds -1.78, the threshold for potential earnings manipulation. These indicators suggest that Riot Platforms, despite its apparent undervaluation, might be a potential value trap. This complexity underlines the importance of thorough due diligence in investment decision-making.

Company Snapshot

Riot Platforms Inc is a vertically integrated Bitcoin mining company focused on building, supporting, and operating blockchain technologies. Distributed blockchain technology is a decentralized and encrypted ledger that is designed to offer a secure, efficient, verifiable, and permanent way of storing records and other information without the need for intermediaries. It serves as a medium of exchange, store of value, or unit of account. The company's segments include Bitcoin Mining; Data Center Hosting and Engineering. It generates maximum revenue from the Bitcoin Mining segment.

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Financial Analysis

The days sales outstanding (DSO) is an important financial metric that denotes the average time a company takes to collect payment after a sale is completed. Looking at the historical data from the past three years (2021: 0.20; 2022: 0.24; 2023: 0.19), there appears to be a rising trend in Riot Platforms's DSO. An uptick in DSO might indicate aggressive revenue recognition practices, and in some cases, potential earnings manipulation.

The Gross Margin index tracks the evolution of a company's gross profit as a proportion of its revenue. By examining the past three years of Riot Platforms's historical data (2021: 63.25; 2022: 49.59; 2023: 11.55), we find that its Gross Margin has contracted by 7.43%. Such a contraction in the gross margin can negatively impact the company's profitability.

Conclusion: A Potential Value Trap

Given the above analysis, it seems that Riot Platforms (RIOT, Financial) might be a potential value trap. Despite its seemingly attractive valuation, the company's financial indicators raise some concerns. Therefore, investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough due diligence before considering an investment in Riot Platforms.

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Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.