Value-focused investors are always on the hunt for stocks that are priced below their intrinsic value. One such stock that merits attention is Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR, Financial). The stock, which is currently priced at $189.85, recorded a gain of 15.76% in a day and a 3-month decrease of 15.54%. The stock's fair valuation is $285.43, as indicated by its GF Value.
Understanding the GF Value
The GF Value represents the current intrinsic value of a stock derived from our exclusive method. The GF Value Line on our summary page gives an overview of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on three factors:
- Historical multiples (PE Ratio, PS Ratio, PB Ratio and Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow) that the stock has traded at.
- GuruFocus adjustment factor based on the company's past returns and growth.
- Future estimates of the business performance.
We believe the GF Value Line is the fair value that the stock should be traded at. The stock price will most likely fluctuate around the GF Value Line. If the stock price is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher.
Risk Factors in Avis Budget Group
However, investors need to consider a more in-depth analysis before making an investment decision. Despite its seemingly attractive valuation, certain risk factors associated with Avis Budget Group should not be ignored. These risks are primarily reflected through its low Altman Z-score of 0.99. These indicators suggest that Avis Budget Group, despite its apparent undervaluation, might be a potential value trap. This complexity underlines the importance of thorough due diligence in investment decision-making.
Understanding the Altman Z-Score
Before delving into the details, let's understand what the Altman Z-score entails. Invented by New York University Professor Edward I. Altman in 1968, the Z-Score is a financial model that predicts the probability of a company entering bankruptcy within a two-year time frame. The Altman Z-Score combines five different financial ratios, each weighted to create a final score. A score below 1.8 suggests a high likelihood of financial distress, while a score above 3 indicates a low risk.
Introduction to Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR, Financial)
Avis Budget Group Inc is a provider of automotive vehicle rental and car-sharing services. Its brands include Avis, Budget, and Zipcar. Avis is targeted to serve the premium commercial and leisure segments of the travel industry, while Budget is focused on value-conscious customers. The company operates its own network of rental locations and licenses its brands to franchisees. Zipcar is a car-sharing service that allows members to use the company-owned Zipcar fleet at an hourly rate. The company's largest region by revenue is the Americas.
Breaking Down Avis Budget Group's Low Altman Z-Score
A dissection of Avis Budget Group's Altman Z-score reveals Avis Budget Group's financial health may be weak, suggesting possible financial distress:
Conclusion: A Potential Value Trap
Despite Avis Budget Group's seemingly attractive valuation, the company's low Altman Z-Score and other risk factors suggest it might be a potential value trap. Thorough due diligence is essential before making an investment decision.
GuruFocus Premium members can find stocks with high Altman Z-Score using the following Screener: Walter Schloss Screen .
This article, generated by GuruFocus, is designed to provide general insights and is not tailored financial advice. Our commentary is rooted in historical data and analyst projections, utilizing an impartial methodology, and is not intended to serve as specific investment guidance. It does not formulate a recommendation to purchase or divest any stock and does not consider individual investment objectives or financial circumstances. Our objective is to deliver long-term, fundamental data-driven analysis. Be aware that our analysis might not incorporate the most recent, price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative information. GuruFocus holds no position in the stocks mentioned herein.
