Guru Murray Stahl (Trades, Portfolio) is the CEO and chairman of FRMO Corp. (FRMO, Financial). Together with CFO Steven Bregman, they report on the investments made through FRMO on a quarterly basis. There is no transcript available yet for the most recent call, but you can listen to the archived call.
The call can be a little bit chaotic if you are a new shareholder, but they are absolutely worth listening too. Stahl and Bregman are full of valuable insights into the markets and readily share wisdom related to their unconventional approach to value investing.
Balance sheet
The call starts out with them commenting on the balance sheet. Equity went down by a meaningful amount and the duo got several questions from shareholders about why it went down and whether the decline would be permanent. A meaningful part of the reduction in book value is due to current assets decreasing by $11 million. A deferred tax liability was decreased and the securities sold, not yet purchased program was expanded a little bit. This is a post where they account for short positions in path dependent ETFs. The way I understand it, they had to take their gains in these positions, which triggered a tax. Afterward they initiated the positions again with a new cost basis.
The HK multistrategy fund declined in value. Over the calendar year, the fund didn’t do so bad (-12%), but throughout the reporting period the fund went down by 25%. There were also some redemptions, although they were quick to point out March had been a very good month.
Digital Currency Group
Stahl talked a little bit about a new investment in the Digital Currency Group. DCG is a corporation devoted to crypto currencies. Stahl expects cryptocurrencies will become a legitimate asset class. DCG owns various venture investments in technologies involved with digital currencies. They own equity in Coinbase (an exchange), Ripple (utilizes blockchain for cross-border transactions) and Grayscale (a money manager of crypto currencies). Governments around the world historically had the tendency to inflate asset prices or currency. Little by little you are purchasing power, a constant threat in history. Being on a metallic standard has historically also caused inflation.Ă‚
The blockchain is a ledger and the coins can’t be counterfeited. If more transactions are done in a currency it raises its value.
If Bitcoin were to become the new gold (Stahl doesn’t necessarily agree, but raises it as a possibility suggested by others), Bitcoin would appreciate by 1000x in value.
If it were to become currency for the world, you would make 20000x your money.
Even though it is a very small investment, Stahl views it as a really important strategic investment. It's possible the stake would be expanded.
Market outlook
If oil went to $45 by end of the year, CPI would go to 2.3% and the Fed would have its hand forced and would need to raise rates. This would cause problems in the market.
You have to diversify away from stocks. Over the last 35 years, interest rates came down and stocks were successful. FRMO is now operating on the premise that two guys picking stocks isn’t going to cut it going forward.
The firm keeps a lot of cash on the balance sheet and views it as optionality. When the next crash (Stahl doesn’t actually use the word crash) comes, the firm will profit by having lots of liquidity.
One of the reasons they like small exchanges so much is that the optionality embedded in them is huge. If big mergers go through like the one between the London Stock Exchange and Deutsche Borsche, these players raise prices and clients are angry and want to move business. Meanwhile there are few licensed exchanges and the small ones are suddenly very well positioned.
ETFs
Stahl views it as very dangerous to be invested in big dominating companies. Big liquid companies pay out a little bit of dividend and throw the rest at buybacks. These companies have defined benefit pension plans, but the stock has to rise or the company has to put extra money into these plans. This means that when the flows into large cap liquid companies is starting to slow, the effect can be dramatic. Big liquid stocks make up huge allocations in focused ETFs. What’s wrong with that? You take a lot of individual security risk by buying this ETF. At some point an event will make that apparent to lots of people invested in these type of securities.
Something else he doesn’t like is the typical dividend ETF. Earnings of the constituents of these products are ever so slightly declining. They have record margins right now, and can’t go up or down by much. These companies are currently saving a lot on the commodity side and not passing this on to the consumer.
The risks in ETF land are exacerbated because ETF providers aren’t making money and can’t make a lot of money on these products because the fees are too low. This structure of the industry leads to only a few companies being a major part of all ETFs.
An index was supposed to take out risk, and now you are taking on risk by buying into them. Everyone owns the same companies.Ă‚
Indexation is not in the early innings, it’s in the late innings. It will possibly go into extra innings.
