Wells Fargo (WFC, Financial) is the highest return and arguably the best run very large bank in the U.S. It is the number one U.S. bank in many categories including retail deposits; middle market, small business and used car lending; equipment and inventory financing; railcar leasing; and commercial and residential mortgage servicing and originations. It is in fewer volatile business lines than other large banks. It leads the industry in the intensity of its customer relationships with over six products per customer. The number of primary checking accounts at Wells is currently growing at around 5%, an impressive growth rate for a financial institution of this size. Through deposit-driven asset growth and stock buybacks, Wells has done a good job of counteracting shrinking net interest margins over the past decade.
Wells has a long-tenured management team and its record of technological innovation positions it well to handle both challenges from “fintech” disruptors and customer demands for access through a multitude of distribution channels. Wells has a good record of capital allocation, having added to per-share value during the financial crisis by buying Wachovia, expanding its footprint from its already fast-growing Western base to the equally vibrant Southeast. At the time, Wachovia’s “pick-a-pay” mortgage portfolio concerned many investors, but that portfolio’s quality has turned out to be better than even Wells expected. Recently, Wells acquired a large piece of General Electric’s finance business, an acquisition we think will work out well.
Last quarter, Wells’ $1.2 trillion in deposits cost only 0.10% on an annualized basis, the lowest interest cost among its peer group, if not the entire banking industry. Right now, the value of Wells’ deposit franchise is obscured by the unusually low interest rate environment and the fact that Wells is currently holding a high level of cash balances earning virtually nothing. Credit losses should rise in a more normal environment and new regulations requiring Wells to raise long term debt could pinch margins somewhat, but we think the boost in profits from higher interest rates and a redeployment of high cash balances would offset those impacts.
Wells trades at about 12 times our forward 12 months’ earnings estimate, a sharp discount to the S&P multiple of 17. Historically banks have sold at discounts to other publicly traded companies because of the perceived risk that comes with leverage. But Wells’ common equity capital ratio is roughly double pre-crisis levels, its underwriting standards are tighter, and it has exited some higher risk businesses. This suggests a higher relative multiple might be warranted.
Between our 2% weighting in Wells and our look-through interest in the Wells shares owned by Berkshire Hathaway, Sequoia shareholders have roughly a 3% exposure to the bank.
From Ruane Cunniff (Trades, Portfolio)'s Sequoia Fund second quarter 2016 shareholder letter.
