Our fourth representative holding is the Canadian shale oil and gas company Encana (NYSE:ECA), a business that fits all three of these criteria. Based on global supply and demand projections for oil, we do not believe the current price of $45 per barrel is sustainable.10 In our view, oil prices will have to increase significantly over time to provide enough supply to meet growing global demand. In addition, because Encana’s reserves are located in the core of four of the top six shale areas in North America, Encana’s costs to develop and produce oil and gas are quite low.
Moreover, Encana’s reserves of oil and gas are so large the company has decades of production ahead based on current production levels.
Finally, when Doug Suttles became CEO in 2013 he promptly reduced the territories on which the company focuses to four core areas. A willingness to shrink and focus is rare and is a key trait of successful CEOs. Suttles has also executed well by ensuring Encana’s survival during the energy downturn through hedges and asset sales and increased operating efficiency by rapidly bringing well costs down. Based on our conservative estimate of the long-term sustainable price for oil and gas, Encana is trading at 12 times 2018 owner earnings, which is highly attractive considering we expect the company to increase production at a rate of 15% a year for many years to come.
From David Global Fund Semi-Annual Review 2016.
