In case you hadn’t noticed, retail is in a bit of a pickle these days. The Conference Board’s latest consumer poll puts their Confidence Index down another 12.4 points, to yet another all-time low at 25.
Keeping in mind that anything below 50 is considered bad, I’d have to say that a score of half that ought to be considered really bad.
No shock there, I suppose, since we are looking at massive unemployment right about now. As of late last week, the official figure had us at 8.1%, a 25-year high water mark for folks who are slowly sinking under water.
And that’s only looking at it percentage-wise. Our population has grown roughly 45% since 1985, and 140% since 1930, so it’s safe to say that there are probably more folks hanging around the corner wasting time then ever before in the history of the country, including the dark days of the Great Depression. Depressing indeed, but before you start thinking this is another one of Lass’ loads of unalloyed dreck, I actually have found another one of those oddball companies looking to expand during this dismal episode.
But First… More Dreck!
There is an odd thing about the current wreckage. Back in 2000, the majority of American households were involved in the stock market in one way or another. This was the dawn of online investing, when most any shmoe who could type their name with two fingers could get a trading account. Inside the biz, many still refer to the tech boom and ensuing crash as the “March of the Morons.”
Not very nice, but there it is. But don’t fret too much, because this most recent crash was in many ways the exact opposite. This time around, it was the wise guys themselves who sank trillions into unfathomable, unvaluable, and in the end, valueless debt arbitrage. The very folks who should have known better fell deepest into the briar patch.
As a result, mega-discounters like Wal-Mart (WMT, Financial) are actually reporting modest but significant increases in sales, while high-end outfits Saks (SKS, Financial), Nordstrom (JWN, Financial), and Ann Taylor (ANN, Financial) are reporting withering sales declines.
The folks in the Ann Taylor corner suite at 7 Times Square (one wonders how long they will be able to afford THAT address eh?) are specifically blaming the 20% plunge in Q4 on the fact that a remarkable number of women no longer require the “business attire” that is ANN’s stock in trade. The future is so “volatile” right now (that’s biz slang for “god-awful”) the team at ANN won’t even put out a forecast for next quarter.
The Two Fashion Items That Sell Even Better When Folks Are Broke
But there is one “wearable” shop that is not pulling in its horns. In fact, it is looking to expand its offerings into Eastern Europe. And yes, they know that the once-and-future Eastern Bloc is melting down as fast as (if not faster than) we are here in the States. In fact, they are counting on it.
I am referring to SSL International PLC (SSL:LN). This Brit healthcare conglomerate has the rights to distribute Dr. Scholl’s foot aids overseas. Just imagine all those sore, tired guys pounding the pavement looking for jobs! But SSL’s real winner in these troubled times is their Durex condoms line.
As per Chief Executive Officer Garry Watts, SSL intends on using the downturn to bump its stake 50% in a unit that distributes contraceptives to Russia and nine other eastern European countries. And that’s just the first kiss, as it were: By 2010 they hope to buy up the entire operation.
Blunt and to the Point In a recent interview with Bloomberg’s Kari Lundgren and Howard Mustoe, Watts put it rather succinctly: “Russian people aren’t going to stop having sex any more than British people are. We’re not immune from the downturn, but it’s a bit like Pizza Hut: If you’re not going out, then you might be willing to drop a five-pound vibrator ring into your trolley.”
Hey, he said it, not me, folks. Okay, stinky feet and Russian condoms are slightly unsettling thoughts (especially around lunchtime). But Watt’s got a point and he’s grinning when he makes it, which makes him different than 95% of the CEOs I speak with these days, who can barely manage a forced rictus smile.
If this is just too much for you to wrap your mind around, and you still want to grab a piece of the action in the “Retail Space,” you can always pick up some of the puts we are recommending in my own WaveStrength Options Weekly column.
Like I mentioned earlier, no one is buying luxury goods. Thus, our Best Buy (BBY, Financial) play is up some 40% as I sit to write, while our Disney (DIS, Financial) play is up 114%.
Yours truly,
Adam Lass
WaveStrength Options Weekly
www.taipanpublishinggroup.com
Keeping in mind that anything below 50 is considered bad, I’d have to say that a score of half that ought to be considered really bad.
No shock there, I suppose, since we are looking at massive unemployment right about now. As of late last week, the official figure had us at 8.1%, a 25-year high water mark for folks who are slowly sinking under water.
And that’s only looking at it percentage-wise. Our population has grown roughly 45% since 1985, and 140% since 1930, so it’s safe to say that there are probably more folks hanging around the corner wasting time then ever before in the history of the country, including the dark days of the Great Depression. Depressing indeed, but before you start thinking this is another one of Lass’ loads of unalloyed dreck, I actually have found another one of those oddball companies looking to expand during this dismal episode.
But First… More Dreck!
There is an odd thing about the current wreckage. Back in 2000, the majority of American households were involved in the stock market in one way or another. This was the dawn of online investing, when most any shmoe who could type their name with two fingers could get a trading account. Inside the biz, many still refer to the tech boom and ensuing crash as the “March of the Morons.”
Not very nice, but there it is. But don’t fret too much, because this most recent crash was in many ways the exact opposite. This time around, it was the wise guys themselves who sank trillions into unfathomable, unvaluable, and in the end, valueless debt arbitrage. The very folks who should have known better fell deepest into the briar patch.
As a result, mega-discounters like Wal-Mart (WMT, Financial) are actually reporting modest but significant increases in sales, while high-end outfits Saks (SKS, Financial), Nordstrom (JWN, Financial), and Ann Taylor (ANN, Financial) are reporting withering sales declines.
The folks in the Ann Taylor corner suite at 7 Times Square (one wonders how long they will be able to afford THAT address eh?) are specifically blaming the 20% plunge in Q4 on the fact that a remarkable number of women no longer require the “business attire” that is ANN’s stock in trade. The future is so “volatile” right now (that’s biz slang for “god-awful”) the team at ANN won’t even put out a forecast for next quarter.
The Two Fashion Items That Sell Even Better When Folks Are Broke
But there is one “wearable” shop that is not pulling in its horns. In fact, it is looking to expand its offerings into Eastern Europe. And yes, they know that the once-and-future Eastern Bloc is melting down as fast as (if not faster than) we are here in the States. In fact, they are counting on it.
I am referring to SSL International PLC (SSL:LN). This Brit healthcare conglomerate has the rights to distribute Dr. Scholl’s foot aids overseas. Just imagine all those sore, tired guys pounding the pavement looking for jobs! But SSL’s real winner in these troubled times is their Durex condoms line.
As per Chief Executive Officer Garry Watts, SSL intends on using the downturn to bump its stake 50% in a unit that distributes contraceptives to Russia and nine other eastern European countries. And that’s just the first kiss, as it were: By 2010 they hope to buy up the entire operation.
Blunt and to the Point In a recent interview with Bloomberg’s Kari Lundgren and Howard Mustoe, Watts put it rather succinctly: “Russian people aren’t going to stop having sex any more than British people are. We’re not immune from the downturn, but it’s a bit like Pizza Hut: If you’re not going out, then you might be willing to drop a five-pound vibrator ring into your trolley.”
Hey, he said it, not me, folks. Okay, stinky feet and Russian condoms are slightly unsettling thoughts (especially around lunchtime). But Watt’s got a point and he’s grinning when he makes it, which makes him different than 95% of the CEOs I speak with these days, who can barely manage a forced rictus smile.
If this is just too much for you to wrap your mind around, and you still want to grab a piece of the action in the “Retail Space,” you can always pick up some of the puts we are recommending in my own WaveStrength Options Weekly column.
Like I mentioned earlier, no one is buying luxury goods. Thus, our Best Buy (BBY, Financial) play is up some 40% as I sit to write, while our Disney (DIS, Financial) play is up 114%.
Yours truly,
Adam Lass
WaveStrength Options Weekly
www.taipanpublishinggroup.com
