Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER, Financial) has been talking about flying cars since 2017. The annual Uber Elevate conference has become a mainstay event for believers in the futuristic vision,
At first, Uber claimed that its flying cars would enter general service in 2020. This timeline has subsequently been revised, first to 2023, then 2025. Despite the expanding timeline, Uber’s statements have lost none of their early confidence. Indeed, on June 11, Uber unveiled the prototype of its electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft as the star of this year’s Elevate conference. Uber said that the vehicle, built by its aerospace manufacturing partner Bell Helicopter, will serve as the basis of a future fleet of aerial (and eventually autonomous) taxis. Testing is set to begin next year in three cities: Los Angeles, Dallas and Melbourne.
While Uber is talking a big game, the challenges facing any effort to design and commercialize a flying car are many and varied. It is not at all clear how Uber will be able to deliver on its promise.
A problem of engineering
The challenge of building a genuine, functional flying car is no simple feat. Just ask Moller International, a company that has been trying to design a working flying car for nearly half a century to no avail. The engineering challenge is profound and has stumped teams of top-rate aerospace engineers for decades. Uber’s prototype, much like Moller’s, has demonstrated the ability to hover in a controlled environment, but little else. Hovering is actually pretty easy, from a physics standpoint. The hard part is dealing with acceleration and maneuvering, which require far more energy.
The decision to go electric only exacerbates the challenge, since current battery technology is still far behind where it has to be in order to power a flying taxi over any significant distance. A breakthrough is energy density would necessary to even make the idea of an eVTOL aircraft viable from an engineering standpoint.
A problem of infrastructure
Uber seems to be totally unconcerned with the vast challenge it will face in building the ground infrastructure needed to get its proposed fleet of flying cars off the ground. Landing pads will have to be built and logistics systems implemented across the regions being served. Flight control is a complex business even in the open skies, as almost any air traffic controller will attest. Now imagine having to deal with a much larger number of vehicles, flying in a much smaller area, and having to avoid both each other and the buildings around them. That is an exceptionally difficult logistics problem, and its solution is crucial to the success of any flying car enterprise. Thus far, Uber has simply shrugged off the issue.
The eVTOL platform causes issues here. Uber claims to be working on charging technology that will replenish its flying cars’ batteries in a flash. Once again, this is a case of Uber promising a technical breakthrough without any evidence that it can actually deliver.
A problem of competence
Uber has forged partnerships with a number of firms with varied technical expertise in its effort to move its flying car plans forward, while a highly publicized collaboration with NASA has lent the company a sheen of credibility. Yet, there remains a vast and obvious gulf between the company’s observable technical competencies and those needed to actually build a viable flying car. Uber is a software company, not an aerospace or battery company. Its shallow partnerships with small industry players and green energy startups, while looking decent on paper, offer little of substance.
Fundamentally, Uber is asking investors to believe that it will solve a host of design, engineering, chemistry and technological problems that have stumped the industry leaders for years. Color us skeptical.
Verdict
Uber has proven itself to be a powerful disruptor of the transportation ecosystem. Thanks to its aggressive early moves, Uber succeeded in paving the way for a whole ride-hailing industry. Yet, Uber’s disruptive business model has yet to become a profitable one. That is a problem for a company with a market capitalization of more than $70 billion.
With the long-term financial viability of its core business model in doubt, Uber has sought increasingly to shift investor attention to other offerings currently in development. Hence all the talk about flying cars and future technologies.
Ultimately, while it is exciting to daydream about a future in which everyone can jet around town and zip between buildings in an Uber skycar, investors should keep their feet firmly on the ground. For all its talk, Uber is not likely to make any (let alone all) of the technical breakthroughs that would be necessary to make its dreams a reality.
Disclosure: Author is short Uber.
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