On July 21, 2026, we present a DCF analysis for ING Groep NV ING, a company that has shown notable price performance over the past year with a 49.2% increase. The current price stands at $32.20, reflecting a market capitalization of $92,048 million.
- DCF Earnings-based intrinsic value of $31.46 vs price of $32.20 (margin of safety: 5.5%)
- DCF FCF-based intrinsic value of $-47.23 vs price (second opinion)
- GF Scoreâ„¢ of 70/100 indicates a moderate reliability of the DCF inputs
What Is ING Worth? DCF Earnings-Based Model
The DCF earnings-based model for ING Groep NV utilizes a two-stage growth approach. In the first stage, we project earnings growth over the next ten years based on the current earnings per share (EPS) of $2.60, growing at a rate of 5.7% annually. This growth is then discounted at a rate of 11%, which is derived from the risk-free rate and equity risk premium.
In the second stage, we assume a terminal growth rate of 4% for years 11-20, which is also discounted at the same rate of 11%. The calculations yield an intrinsic value that combines both stages, providing a comprehensive view of the company's worth.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Current EPS (TTM, excl. non-recurring) | $2.60 |
| 10-Year Growth Rate | 5.7% |
| 10-Year Treasury Rate | 4.59% |
| Discount Rate (ceil(Treasury) + 6%) | 11% |
| Terminal Growth Rate | 4% |
The calculation summary for the DCF earnings-based model is as follows:
| Stage | Description | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth Stage (Years 1-10) | EPS growing at 5.7%, discounted at 11% | $20.10 |
| Terminal Stage (Years 11-20) | 4% terminal growth, discounted at 11% | $11.36 |
| Intrinsic Value | Growth + Terminal | $31.46 |
With the current price at $32.20 and the intrinsic value calculated at $34.07, ING appears to be fairly valued with a margin of safety of 5.5%. It is important to note that GuruFocus uses EPS without non-recurring items because research shows stock prices correlate more closely with earnings than free cash flow. For further details, visit the ING DCF Calculator.
What Does the Free Cash Flow DCF Say?
The free cash flow (FCF) based intrinsic value for ING Groep NV stands at $-47.23. This starkly contrasts with the earnings-based intrinsic value of $31.46, indicating a significant disagreement between the two models. The FCF model suggests that the stock is significantly overvalued, with a margin of safety of -100.0%.
How Does GF Valueâ„¢ Compare to the DCF Models?
The GF Valueâ„¢ for ING is calculated at $22.49, providing a third perspective on the valuation. GF Valueâ„¢ is GuruFocus' proprietary measure derived from historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance estimates. When comparing all three models, the earnings-based DCF suggests fair valuation, the FCF model indicates significant overvaluation, and the GF Valueâ„¢ suggests that the stock is overvalued. For more insights, visit the GF Valueâ„¢ page.
What Does ING's GF Scoreâ„¢ Tell Us?
The GF Scoreâ„¢ ranks stocks from 0 to 100 based on five key aspects: Financial Strength, Profitability, Growth, Valuation, and Momentum. Stocks with higher GF Scoreâ„¢ values have been found to generate higher long-term returns based on backtesting from 2006 to 2021.
| Metric | Rating |
|---|---|
| GF Scoreâ„¢ | 70/100 |
| Financial Strength | 2/10 |
| Profitability | 5/10 |
| Growth | 7/10 |
| Valuation | 5/10 |
| Momentum | 9/10 |
With a predictability rank of 0/5 stars, it indicates that the DCF model may be less reliable for this stock. For more information, visit the ING stock page.
Key Assumptions and Limitations
It is important to note that DCF models are highly sensitive to growth rate and discount rate assumptions. Stocks with low predictability ratings, like ING, produce less reliable DCF estimates. The terminal growth rate of 4% is a simplifying assumption that may not reflect future market conditions.
What This Means for Investors
In summary, the three valuation models present a mixed picture for ING Groep NV. The DCF earnings model suggests the stock is fairly valued, while the FCF model indicates significant overvaluation. The GF Valueâ„¢ also suggests the stock is overvalued. Overall, investors should exercise caution given the discrepancies among the models and the low predictability rating.
For the full DCF analysis, visit the ING DCF Calculator. You can also explore the GF Valueâ„¢ page, or use the GuruFocus Stock Screener to find undervalued predictable companies.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is ING's intrinsic value based on DCF?
earnings-based $34.07, FCF-based $-47.23
Is ING overvalued or undervalued?
Based on the DCF and GF Valueâ„¢ consensus, ING is considered overvalued.
How reliable is the DCF model for ING?
The DCF model's reliability for ING is low, as indicated by a predictability rank of 0/5.
This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
