On September 15, 2026, Valero Energy Corp VLO shares rose 3.7% to a current price of $397.04. This increase comes amid a 52-week range of $155.29 to $399.76, reflecting substantial volatility and growth in recent months.
- GF Valueâ„¢ verdict: Current price is $397.04, which is 131.5% above the GF Valueâ„¢ estimate of $171.54, indicating significant overvaluation.
- GF Scoreâ„¢ is 65/100, suggesting an above-average overall rating in terms of fundamentals.
- Most notable signal: Insiders have sold $9.4 million worth of shares over the past 12 months, with no buying activity noted.
Is VLO Overvalued or Undervalued?
According to the GF Valueâ„¢, Valero Energy Corp is significantly overvalued at its current trading price of $397.04 compared to the intrinsic value estimate of $171.54. This presents a margin of safety issue for potential investors, as the stock is trading at a significant premium to its calculated fair value. The GF Valueâ„¢ is GuruFocus' proprietary estimate based on various factors, including historical trading multiples, past business growth, and future performance projections. With a 131.5% overvaluation, the risk of a price correction looms large, particularly in the context of market volatility and changing economic conditions.
The GF Valuation label indicates that the current market price does not reflect the intrinsic value of the company, which could lead to potential losses for investors if the stock price adjusts to align more closely with its fundamental value.
How Does VLO's Valuation Compare to Its History?
| Metric | Current | Historical |
|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | 16.5x | 11.6x |
| Forward P/E | 12.2x | N/A |
Valero's current P/E ratio of 16.5x is 42% above its 5-year median P/E of 11.6x, highlighting that the stock is trading at a premium compared to its historical valuation. This analysis aligns with the GF Valueâ„¢ verdict, reinforcing the conclusion that VLO is overvalued in the current market.
What Does VLO's GF Scoreâ„¢ Tell Us?
The GF Scoreâ„¢ measures a company's overall financial health, covering aspects like financial strength, profitability, growth, valuation, and momentum. Valero's GF Scoreâ„¢ stands at 65/100, indicating a respectable performance overall, but there are areas of concern. Its strongest sub-ranks are Financial Strength and Profitability, both rated 8/10, whereas Valuation ranks poorly at 1/10, highlighting the overvaluation issue.
| Metric | Rating |
|---|---|
| GF Scoreâ„¢ | 65/100 |
| Financial Strength | 8/10 |
| Profitability | 8/10 |
| Growth | 5/10 |
| Valuation | 1/10 |
| Momentum | 3/10 |
The combination of a strong Financial Strength and Profitability score suggests that Valero is well-positioned operationally, but the extremely low Valuation rank indicates a significant concern regarding its current market price in relation to its fundamentals. The moderate Growth rank of 5/10 suggests that while there are opportunities for expansion, they may not justify the current valuation.
What Are Gurus and Insiders Doing with VLO?
Currently, 11 gurus hold shares of Valero Energy Corp, with 8 adding to their positions and 2 trimming their holdings in recent quarters. This indicates a generally positive sentiment among professional investors, as the majority are increasing their stakes in the company. However, it is noteworthy that insiders have sold $9.4 million worth of shares over the past year, with no buying activity, which could signal a lack of confidence in the stock's future performance from those closest to the company.
The combination of guru ownership increasing alongside significant insider selling presents a mixed picture. While the guru activity suggests that some institutional investors see potential in VLO, the insider selling raises red flags about internal confidence in the company's valuation and prospects.
What This Means for Investors
In conclusion, Valero Energy Corp is currently overvalued based on its GF Valueâ„¢ estimate, which suggests a significant disconnect between its market price and intrinsic value. Investors should be cautious, given the high level of overvaluation, and monitor market developments closely to reassess potential opportunities or risks associated with this stock. For further insights and detailed analysis, visit the Valero Energy Corp VLO stock page.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is VLO's GF Scoreâ„¢?
VLO has a GF Scoreâ„¢ of 65/100, indicating above-average fundamentals in terms of financial health and operational performance.
Is VLO overvalued or undervalued?
VLO is deemed significantly overvalued, with its current price far exceeding the GF Valueâ„¢ estimate.
What is VLO's P/E ratio?
VLO's P/E ratio is 16.5x, which is notably above its 5-year median P/E of 11.6x, further reinforcing the overvaluation narrative.
This stock alert was generated using automated technology and GuruFocus financial data to provide readers with timely and accurate market reporting. This content was reviewed by GuruFocus editorial team prior to publication. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected].
