Further to my Seahawk Drilling, Inc. (NASDAQ:HAWK) liquidation value post, I set out below the slightly more optimistic valuation of HAWK’s rigs if they can be sold as operating rigs. Here is a guide to the second-hand market for rigs (click to enlarge):
I’ve combined it with the list of HAWK’s rigs and their operating status from the July 2 Drilling Fleet Status Report to calculate the approximate second-hand market value of HAWK’s rigs:
Assumptions
Although a handful of HAWK’s rigs were built prior to 1980, I’ve assumed that the recent upgrades make the rigs saleable in the second-hand market. There is no market value for the 300”² MC (mat cantilever). 250”² MCs sell for around half the market price of 250”² ICs, so I’ve assumed that 300”² MCs might sell for half the price of 300”² ICs, which is $60M. I’ve also assumed that most of the cold-stacked rigs can be made operational with little expense, as Randy Stiller indicated in the presentation to the Macquarie Securities Small and Mid-Cap Conference. Stiller mentioned that two rigs require significant cap ex to be returned to operational status, although it isn’t clear which two or what “significant” means in practice. I’ve assumed that the 80”² MC is saleable only for scrap at $5M.
Valuation
I calculated that HAWK was worth around $154M in the more dour liquidation scenario, assuming that the rig value was $230M. This valuation suggests HAWK could be worth another ~$150M in rig value if most of the rigs can be sold as operational, which implies a liquidation value around $300M or around $25 per share. The risks are the cash burn and the Mexican tax issue, both of which I’ll examine in detail at a later date.
Hat tip John.
[Full Disclosure: I hold HAWK. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. Do your own research before investing in any security.]
Greenbackd
http://greenbackd.com/
I’ve combined it with the list of HAWK’s rigs and their operating status from the July 2 Drilling Fleet Status Report to calculate the approximate second-hand market value of HAWK’s rigs:
Assumptions
Although a handful of HAWK’s rigs were built prior to 1980, I’ve assumed that the recent upgrades make the rigs saleable in the second-hand market. There is no market value for the 300”² MC (mat cantilever). 250”² MCs sell for around half the market price of 250”² ICs, so I’ve assumed that 300”² MCs might sell for half the price of 300”² ICs, which is $60M. I’ve also assumed that most of the cold-stacked rigs can be made operational with little expense, as Randy Stiller indicated in the presentation to the Macquarie Securities Small and Mid-Cap Conference. Stiller mentioned that two rigs require significant cap ex to be returned to operational status, although it isn’t clear which two or what “significant” means in practice. I’ve assumed that the 80”² MC is saleable only for scrap at $5M.
Valuation
I calculated that HAWK was worth around $154M in the more dour liquidation scenario, assuming that the rig value was $230M. This valuation suggests HAWK could be worth another ~$150M in rig value if most of the rigs can be sold as operational, which implies a liquidation value around $300M or around $25 per share. The risks are the cash burn and the Mexican tax issue, both of which I’ll examine in detail at a later date.
Hat tip John.
[Full Disclosure: I hold HAWK. This is neither a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All information provided believed to be reliable and presented for information purposes only. Do your own research before investing in any security.]
Greenbackd
http://greenbackd.com/
