Core Natural Resources (CNR) stock increased from $88.51 to $104.73 during the quarter, with most of the gain occurring after the onset of the war. The conflict has disrupted natural gas supply globally, leading to an increased demand for coal. While it is too early to quantify the positive impact for CNR, the current geopolitical situation suggests a favorable outlook for the company as coal demand rises in response to these disruptions.

Core Natural Resources (CNR) has faced significant challenges, declining 27.6% during the quarter. The company, which was formerly CONSOL Energy, has been impacted by falling coal prices and reduced production due to a fire in one of its mines. Additionally, the escalating trade war poses risks to CNR's exports. Despite these issues, the company maintains a conservative balance sheet and has the capacity to repurchase stock this year, which could provide some support. However, the overall outlook remains cautious given the current market conditions.

Core Natural Resources (CNR) reentered the portfolio after previously being a top holding in 2022 under the Arch Resources banner. Following Arch’s merger with CONSOL Energy, Core owns some of the lowest-cost and highest-quality thermal and metallurgical coal assets in the U.S. We expect Core to generate a meaningful portion of its current market value in cash over the next few years and to deploy that cash toward share repurchases. Recent geopolitical instability has reinforced the importance of energy security and could support sustained demand for coal exports, while eventual reconstruction activity in conflict-affected regions may support steel demand, the end market for Core’s metallurgical coal.

Core Natural Resources, resulting from the merger of Consol and Arch Resources, is positioned to benefit from increasing met coal demand driven by urbanization in Asia. The company reported Q1 2025 revenue slightly above forecasts and allocated $106.6 million to investors through buybacks and dividends. With a projected free cash flow of $250-$550 million in 2025, and potential for $500 million to $1 billion in a more normal year, Core is set to capitalize on a lack of investment in met coal and a robust balance sheet, making it an attractive long-term investment.