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American Education Center (American Education Center) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.00% (As of Apr. 27, 2024)


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What is American Education Center Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, American Education Center's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of American Education Center's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Consulting Services subindustry, American Education Center's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

American Education Center's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Business Services Industry

For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, American Education Center's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where American Education Center's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


American Education Center Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=0.00

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

American Education Center  (OTCPK:AMCT) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

American Education Center Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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American Education Center (American Education Center) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » American Education Center Inc (OTCPK:AMCT) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Comparable Companies
MSYN HKSE:08341 BOM:541735 QPRC AMMJ WAR:TLT WAR:DGA HKSE:08455 WSCO WAR:ERH
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1 Rockefeller Plaza, 10th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10020
Website
https://www.aec100.com
American Education Center Inc is a United States-based company engaged in the providing of consulting services. Its Consulting services include Placement Advisory Services, Career Advisory Services, Student & Family Advisory Services, and Other Advisory Services. The company operates in two segments namely AEC New York segment and AEC BVI segment. The majority of the revenue is generated from the AEC New York segment which capitalizes middle-class families in China for quality education and works experiences in the United States( US) and delivers customized high school and college placement and career advisory services to Chinese students wishing to study in the US.