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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Great Elm Capital's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
For the Asset Management subindustry, Great Elm Capital's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Asset Management industry and Financial Services sector, Great Elm Capital's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Great Elm Capital's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
= | -7.70 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
= | 0.05% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
NIMTAAVG | = | Net Income | / | Market Total Assets |
= | Net Income | / | (Market Cap + Total Liabilities) |
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
TLMTA | = | Total Liabilities | / | Market Total Assets |
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:
CASHMTA | = | (Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Money Market Investments) | / | Market Total Assets |
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
MB | = | Market Cap | / | Adjusted Book Equity |
= | Market Cap | / | (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity)) |
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Great Elm Capital (NAS:GECC) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Great Elm Capital's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Great Elm Group, Inc. | 10 percent owner | 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 230, WALTHAM MA 02453 |
Richard M Cohen | director | C/O CARNEGIE INTERNATIONAL CORP, 11350 MCCORMICK ROAD EXECUTIVE PLAZA #3, HUNT VALLEY MD 21031 |
Mark Kuperschmid | director | MAST CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 51ST FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
Matthew D Kaplan | officer: CEO and President | 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 230, WALTHAM MA 02453 |
Northern Right Capital Management, L.p. | 10 percent owner, other: Member of 13D 10% Group | 9 OLD KINGS HWY. S., 4TH FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820 |
Nrc Partners I, Lp | 10 percent owner | 9 OLD KINGS HIGHWAY SOUTH, 4TH FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820 |
Bc Advisors Llc | 10 percent owner | 500 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 230, DALLAS TX 75201 |
Northern Right Capital (qp), L.p. | 10 percent owner | 9 OLD KINGS HWY. S., 4TH FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820 |
Matthew A Drapkin | director | 10 CORBIN DRIVE, 3RD FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820 |
Chad Perry | director | C/O TANGER FACTORY OUTLET CENTERS, INC., 3200 NORTHLINE AVENUE, SUITE 360, GREENSBORO NC 27408 |
Lenders Funding Llc /california | 10 percent owner | 523 A AVENUE, CORONADO CA 92118 |
Robert A Zadek | 10 percent owner | 523 A AVENUE, CORONADO CA 92118 |
Erik A Falk | director | C/O KKR ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC, 555 CALIFORNIA STREET, 50TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104 |
Adam M Kleinman | officer: Chief Compliance Officer | 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 230, WALTHAM MA 02453 |
Michael C Speller | director | 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 230, WALTHAM MA 02453 |
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