GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Molekule Group Inc (OTCPK:MKULQ) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Molekule Group (Molekule Group) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 50.00% (As of Apr. 29, 2024)


View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is Molekule Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Molekule Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 50.00%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison of Molekule Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Pollution & Treatment Controls subindustry, Molekule Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Molekule Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Industrial Products Industry

For the Industrial Products industry and Industrials sector, Molekule Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Molekule Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Molekule Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=0.00

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=50.00%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Molekule Group  (OTCPK:MKULQ) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Molekule Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Molekule Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Molekule Group (Molekule Group) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
10455 Riverside Drive, Palm Beach Gardens, FL, USA, 33410
Molekule Group Inc is an interior space air purification technology company with an immediate objective of initiating full-scale commercialization of its high-performance interior air sterilization and disinfection products for the eradication of coronavirus and other harmful airborne pathogens. The Company was established to develop technology-driven, medical-grade air purification solutions for hospitals and other healthcare settings. Its air hygiene product, Purgo, is an FD medical device that provides continuous air filtration, sanitization, and supplemental ventilation solutions with technology that can be applied in any indoor space including in hospitals, offices, and even in elevators.
Executives
Ritankar Pal officer: Chief Operating Officer 10455 RIVERSIDE DR., PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33410
Jonathan Harris officer: Chief Commercial Officer 3000 CLEARVIEW WAY, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Bradley A Feld director C/O FOUNDRY GROUP, 645 WALNUT ST., BOULDER CO 80302
Ryan A Mcintyre 10 percent owner
Seth Levine 10 percent owner 1050 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 210, BOULDER CO 80302
Fg Next Gp, Llc 10 percent owner 1050 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 210, BOULDER CO 80302
Foundry Group Next, L.p. 10 percent owner C/O FOUNDRY GROUP, 1050 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 219, BOULDER CO 80302
Ward Jr Stephen M director C/O CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP, PO BOX 14662, READING PA 19612
Timothy J Scannell director 2825 AIRVIEW BOULEVARD, KALAMAZOO MI 49002
Heather Floyd director 1300 CORPORATE CENTER WAY, WELLINGTON FL 33414
Thomas P Mccaffrey director 1300 CORPORATE CENTER WAY, WELLINGTON FL 33414
Lewis C Pell 10 percent owner C/O VISION SCIENCES INC, 6 STRATHMORE RD, NATICK MA 01760
Michael F Senft director 1300 CORPORATE CENTER WAY, WELLINGTON FL 33414
Jason Dibona officer: Chief Executive Officer 10455 RIVERSIDE DRIVE, PALM BEACH GARDEN FL 33410
David Helfet director 10455 RIVERSIDE DRIVE, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33410

Molekule Group (Molekule Group) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Molekule Reports First Quarter 2023 Financial Results

By sperokesalga sperokesalga 05-16-2023