What is Party City Holdco Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Party City Holdco's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.00%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Party City Holdco's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Specialty Retail subindustry, Party City Holdco's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Party City Holdco's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Party City Holdco's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Party City Holdco's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Party City Holdco Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | 0.00 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.00% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Party City Holdco (Party City Holdco) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
80 Grasslands Road, Elmsford, NY, USA, 10523
Party City Holdco Inc is a party goods retailer in North America that operates owned and franchised locations in the us, Canada, and Puerto Rico. Party City also sells internationally in countries like the UK, France, Germany, and Australia, among others. The company has two primary reporting segments: retail and wholesale. The retail operations sell through Anagram, Amscan, Designware, Costumes USA, and other party suppliers, such as Party City, Halloween City, and PartyCity.com. The wholesale segment sells party goods such as paper and plastic tableware, accessories and novelties, balloons, stationery, and gift items for all occasions. These products are sold by franchise stores, mass merchants, independent card and gift shops, dollar stores, and other retailers and global distributors.
Executives
| Clifford Sosin |
10 percent owner |
8 WRIGHT STREET, 1ST FL, WESTPORT CT 06880 |
| John Capela |
officer: See Remarks |
779 HIGHLAND AVENUE, PARAMUS NJ 07652 |
| Peter Royer Smith |
officer: Chief Operations Officer |
3438 PEACHTREE ROAD NE, SUITE 1800, ATLANTA GA 30326 |
| De Mesa Graziano Cheryl |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
80 GRASSLANDS ROAD, ELMSFORD NY 10523 |
| Steven J Collins |
director |
29 VINTON STREET, #5, BOSTON MA 02127 |
| William S. Creekmuir |
director |
SIX CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 3300-A, ATLANTA GA 30328 |
| John Frascotti |
director |
C/O HASBRO, INC. 1011 NEWPORT AVENUE, PAWTUCKET RI 02862 |
| Shroff Michelle Millstone |
director |
C/O PARTY CITY HOLDCO INC., 80 GRASSLANDS ROAD, ELMSFORD NY 10523 |
| James M Harrison |
director |
GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 85 BROAD ST, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Reginald Rasch |
officer: See Remarks |
80 GRASSLANDS ROAD, ELMSFORD NY 10523 |
| Sean Thompson |
officer: See Remarks |
80 GRASSLANDS ROAD, ELMSFORD NY 10523 |
| Sarah Dodds-brown |
director |
80 GRASSLANDS ROAD, ELMSFORD NY 10523 |
| Jennifer Fleiss |
director |
80 GRASSLANDS ROAD, ELMSFORD NY 10523 |
| Joel Alsfine |
director |
2905 PREMIERE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097 |
| Norman S Matthews |
director |
650 MADISON AVENUE, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
Party City Holdco (Party City Holdco) Headlines
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
PRTYQ has been successfully added to your