Svenska Cellulosa AB (Svenska Cellulosa AB) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.02% (As of Apr. 29, 2024)

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What is Svenska Cellulosa AB Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Svenska Cellulosa AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Svenska Cellulosa AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Lumber & Wood Production subindustry, Svenska Cellulosa AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Svenska Cellulosa AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Forest Products Industry

For the Forest Products industry and Basic Materials sector, Svenska Cellulosa AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Svenska Cellulosa AB's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Svenska Cellulosa AB Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-8.29

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Svenska Cellulosa AB (OTCPK:SVCBF) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Svenska Cellulosa AB Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Svenska Cellulosa AB (Svenska Cellulosa AB) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Forest Products » Svenska Cellulosa AB (OTCPK:SVCBF) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Traded in Other Exchanges

SCABY:USA SCA B:Sweden SCA A:Sweden SCABs:UK 0MCK:UK SCA:Germany

Address

Skepparplatsen 1, Sundsvall, SWE, SE-851 88

Website

https://www.sca.com

Svenska Cellulosa AB is Europe's private forest owner, engaged in four business segments; the Forest segment supplies its industries with timber. The segment includes managing and harvesting on its own forest land, sourcing timber from other forest owners, and transporting the timber to its industries, The Wood segment includes five sawmills in northern Sweden and wood processing and distribution to the building materials trade in Sweden and France, The Pulp segment encompasses the production and sale of bleached softwood kraft pulp (NBSK) and chemi-thermomechanical pulp (CTMP), which are produced at the Ostrand pulp mill, and The Containerboard segment includes packaging paper with kraft liner manufacturing at the Obbola and Munksund paper mills.