What is Zumiez Probability of Financial Distress (%)?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Zumiez's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Competitive Comparison of Zumiez's Probability of Financial Distress (%)
For the Apparel Retail subindustry, Zumiez's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Zumiez's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Zumiez's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Zumiez's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Zumiez Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
| LPFD | = | -20.12 * NIMTAAVG | + | 1.60 * TLMTA | - | 7.88 * EXRETAVG | + | 1.55 * SIGMA | - | 0.005 * RSIZE | - | 2.27 * CASHMTA | + | 0.070 * MB | - | 0.09 * PRICE | - | 8.87 |
| = | -7.32 |
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
| PFD | = | 1 | / | (1 + e^(-LPFD)) | * | 100% |
| = | 0.07% |
The eight explanatory variables are:
1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets
*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.
2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets
3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets
For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
6. RSIZE = Relative Size
| RSIZE | = | log (Market Cap | / | Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies) |
7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio
8. PRICE
PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).
Zumiez (Zumiez) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4001 204th Street SW, Lynnwood, WA, USA, 98036
Zumiez Inc is a United-States-based specialty retailer engaged in the sale of apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods. The company provides merchandise with cultural elements coming from fashion, music, art and from action sports, streetwear, and other unique lifestyles. The company operates under the brands Zumiez and Blue Tomato, and through both physical stores and websites. Most of the company's stores are located in the U.S., with the rest in Canada, Australia, and Europe. The U.S. market contributes to the majority of the company's revenue.
Executives
| Guy Matthew Harkless |
director |
4001 204TH STREET SW, LYNNWOOD WA 98036 |
| James P. Murphy |
director |
999 LAKE DRIVE, ISSAQUAH WA 98027 |
| Adam Christopher Ellis |
officer: President International |
4001 204TH STREET SW, LYNNWOOD WA 98036 |
| Richard Miles Brooks |
officer: President and CEO |
6300 MERRILL CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE B, EVERETT WA 98203 |
| Troy R. Brown |
officer: Ex. V.P. of E-commerce |
4001 204TH STREET SW, LYNNWOOD WA 98036 |
| Carmen Bauza |
director |
2400 WEST CENTRAL ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60192 |
| Chris K. Visser |
officer: General Counsel & Corp. Sec. |
4001 204TH STREET SW, LYNNWOOD WA 98036 |
| Holmes Kalen |
director |
2401 UTAH AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 800, SEATTLE WA 98134 |
| Thomas D Campion |
director, officer: Chairman of Board of Directors |
6300 MERRILL CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE B, EVERETT WA 98203 |
| Work Christopher Codington |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
4001 204TH STREET SW, LYNNWOOD WA 98036 |
| Sarah Gaines Mccoy |
director |
6300 MERRILL CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE B, EVERETT WA 98203-5862 |
| Scott Andrew Bailey |
director |
4001 204TH STREET SW, LYNNWOOD WA 98036 |
| Matthew L Hyde |
director |
C/O REI, 6750 SOUTH 228TH ST., KENT WA 98032 |
| Ernest R Johnson |
director |
|
| Steve Louden |
director |
C/O ROKU, INC., 150 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, LOS GATOS CA 95032 |
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