Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
Alcoa's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
The historical rank and industry rank for Alcoa's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:
ARNC.PR.PFD's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is not ranked *
in the Metals & Mining industry.
Industry Median: 0.97 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) only.
Alcoa Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data
The historical data trend for Alcoa's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Competitive Comparison of Alcoa's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
For the Aluminum subindustry, Alcoa's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Alcoa's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Distribution in the Metals & Mining Industry
For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Alcoa's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Alcoa's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) falls into.
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.
Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 11% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = %
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $. GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
Alcoa's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.
Be Aware
What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:
1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.
Alcoa Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Alcoa's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Arconic Inc, formerly known as Alcoa Inc was first incorporated as the Pittsburgh Reduction Company on October 1, 1888. The Company is engaged in manufacturing and engineering lightweight metals. Its products include aluminum, titanium, and nickel, used in aerospace, automotive, commercial transportation, packaging, building and construction, oil and gas, defense, consumer electronics, and industrial applications. The Company is also engaged in the production and management of aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina combined, through its active participation in all aspects of the industry: technology, mining, refining, smelting, fabricating, and recycling. It has investments and operating activities in, among others, Australia, Brazil, China, Guinea, Iceland, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. The Company operates in segments including Global Rolled Products, Engineered Products and Solutions, and Transportation and Construction Solutions. The Company's Global Rolled Products segment represents its midstream operations. The Engineered Products and Solutions segment represents a portion of the Company's downstream operations. Its downstream portfolio includes two segments Engineered Products and Solutions and Transportation and Construction Solutions. The Engineered Products and Solutions consist of Alcoa Titanium & Engineered Products; Alcoa Fastening Systems & Rings; Alcoa Forgings and Extrusions; and Alcoa Power and Propulsion. The Company's Transportation and Construction Solutions segment represents a portion of its downstream operations. The raw materials used includes bauxite, alloying materials, caustic soda, alumina, electricity, aluminum fluoride, fuel oil, calcined petroleum coke, lime (CaO), cathode blocks, natural gas, electricity, liquid pitch, natural gas, titanium alloys, titanium sponge and resin. The Company's trademark products include Howmet metal castings, Huck fasteners, Kawneer building panels and Dura-Bright wheels with easy-clean surface treatments.
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