Alcoa (ARNC.PR.PFD) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $ (As of Apr. 27, 2024)

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What is Alcoa Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-27), Alcoa's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Alcoa's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Alcoa is

The industry rank for Alcoa's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

ARNC.PR.PFD's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Metals & Mining industry.
Industry Median: 1.145
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Alcoa Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Alcoa's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Alcoa Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Alcoa Annual Data

Trend

Dec06

Dec07

Dec08

Dec09

Dec10

Dec11

Dec12

Dec13

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Dec15

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

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Alcoa Quarterly Data
	Dec11	Mar12	Jun12	Sep12	Dec12	Mar13	Jun13	Sep13	Dec13	Mar14	Jun14	Sep14	Dec14	Mar15	Jun15	Sep15	Dec15	Mar16	Jun16	Sep16
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Alcoa's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Aluminum subindustry, Alcoa's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Alcoa's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Metals & Mining Industry

For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Alcoa's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Alcoa's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

Alcoa Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = %
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Alcoa's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+)/(1+0.11) =
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+)/(1+0.11) =

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(	-	90.50)	/

Alcoa (AMEX:ARNC.PR.PFD) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Alcoa Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Alcoa's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Alcoa (ARNC.PR.PFD) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Alcoa Inc (AMEX:ARNC.PR.PFD) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

https://www.arconic.com

Arconic Inc, formerly known as Alcoa Inc was first incorporated as the Pittsburgh Reduction Company on October 1, 1888. The Company is engaged in manufacturing and engineering lightweight metals. Its products include aluminum, titanium, and nickel, used in aerospace, automotive, commercial transportation, packaging, building and construction, oil and gas, defense, consumer electronics, and industrial applications. The Company is also engaged in the production and management of aluminum, fabricated aluminum, and alumina combined, through its active participation in all aspects of the industry: technology, mining, refining, smelting, fabricating, and recycling. It has investments and operating activities in, among others, Australia, Brazil, China, Guinea, Iceland, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. The Company operates in segments including Global Rolled Products, Engineered Products and Solutions, and Transportation and Construction Solutions. The Company's Global Rolled Products segment represents its midstream operations. The Engineered Products and Solutions segment represents a portion of the Company's downstream operations. Its downstream portfolio includes two segments Engineered Products and Solutions and Transportation and Construction Solutions. The Engineered Products and Solutions consist of Alcoa Titanium & Engineered Products; Alcoa Fastening Systems & Rings; Alcoa Forgings and Extrusions; and Alcoa Power and Propulsion. The Company's Transportation and Construction Solutions segment represents a portion of its downstream operations. The raw materials used includes bauxite, alloying materials, caustic soda, alumina, electricity, aluminum fluoride, fuel oil, calcined petroleum coke, lime (CaO), cathode blocks, natural gas, electricity, liquid pitch, natural gas, titanium alloys, titanium sponge and resin. The Company's trademark products include Howmet metal castings, Huck fasteners, Kawneer building panels and Dura-Bright wheels with easy-clean surface treatments.

Executives

Joseph S Cantie	director	C/O DELPHI AUTOMOTIVE, 5725 DELPHI DRIVE, TROY MI 48098
Amy E Alving	director	ARCONIC INC., 390 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Tolga I Oal	director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	201 ISABELLA STREET, PITTSTBURGH PA 15212
John C Plant	director, officer: Chairman and Co-CEO	C/O MASCO CORPORATION, 17450 COLLEGE PARKWAY, LIVONIA MI 48152
Jody Miller	director	225 SOUTH SIXTH STREET, 9TH FLOOR, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
James F Albaugh	director	C/O THE BOEING COMPANY, 100 NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, CHICAGO IL 60606
Ulrich Schmidt	director	PRECISION CASTPARTS CORP., 4650 SW MACADAM AVENUE, SUITE 400, PORTLAND OR 97239
Nicole Weyerhaeuser Piasecki	director	2000 WELLS FARGO PLACE, 30 EAST 7TH STREET, SAINT PAUL MN 55101-4930
Robert F Leduc	director	UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP, 10 FARM SPRINGS ROAD, FARMINGTON CT 06032
David J Miller	director	C/O ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION, 40 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Neil Edward Marchuk	officer: EVP, HR	12025 TECH CENTER DRIVE, LIVONIA MI 48150
Katherine H Ramundo	officer: CLO and Corporate Secretary	C/O APTIV, 5725 INNOVATION DRIVE, TROY MI 48098
W Paul Myron	officer: Vice President and Controller	ALCOA INC., 390 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022-4608
Ken Giacobbe	officer: CFO	ALCOA INC., 390 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022-4608
Timothy Donald Myers	officer: Executive Vice President	ALCOA INC., 390 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022-4608