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Aspira Womens Health (Aspira Womens Health) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $-27.91 (As of Apr. 28, 2024)


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What is Aspira Womens Health Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-28), Aspira Womens Health's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $-27.91.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Aspira Womens Health's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Aspira Womens Health is N/A.

The industry rank for Aspira Womens Health's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

AWH's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Medical Diagnostics & Research industry.
Industry Median: 1.29
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Aspira Womens Health Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Aspira Womens Health's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Aspira Womens Health Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Aspira Womens Health Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
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Aspira Womens Health Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only - - - - -

Competitive Comparison of Aspira Womens Health's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Diagnostics & Research subindustry, Aspira Womens Health's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Aspira Womens Health's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Medical Diagnostics & Research Industry

For the Medical Diagnostics & Research industry and Healthcare sector, Aspira Womens Health's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Aspira Womens Health's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.



Aspira Womens Health Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 9.80%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Aspira Womens Health's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 9.80%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 9.80%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $-1.766.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Aspira Womens Health's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.098)/(1+0.11) = 0.98918918918919
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)=Free Cash Flow per Share*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Free Cash Flow per Share*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=-1.766*15.8036
=-27.91

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
=(-27.91-3.3266)/-27.91
=N/A

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Aspira Womens Health  (NAS:AWH) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Aspira Womens Health Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Aspira Womens Health (Aspira Womens Health) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
12117 Bee Caves Road, Suite 100, Building 3, Austin, TX, USA, 78738
Aspira Womens Health Inc is engaged in developing and commercializing diagnostic tests for gynecologic diseases. The Company markets and sells, 1) Ova1, a blood test intended as an aid to assess the likelihood of malignancy in women with an ovarian adnexal mass for which surgery is planned when the physician's independent clinical and radiological evaluation does not indicate malignancy; (2) Overa, a second-generation biomarker reflex intended to maintain Ova1's high sensitivity while improving specificity; (3) Ova1Plus, a reflex offering which uses Ova1 as the primary test and Overa as a confirmation for Ova1 intermediate range results; and (4) OvaWatch, a lab-developed blood test intended to assist in the initial clinical assessment of malignancy risk in all women with an adnexal mass.
Executives
Nicole Sandford director 12117 BEE CAVES RD BLDG 3, STE 100, AUSTIN TX 78738
Minh Hoang Merchant officer: General Counsel & Secretary 1210 AVONDALE ROAD, HILLSBOROUGH CA 94010
Torsten Hombeck officer: Chief Financial Officer 529 W 42ND ST #6V, NEW YORK NY 10036
Celeste Rachelle Fralick director 2801 MESA ROAD, LUBBOCK TX 79403
Veronica Gh Jordan director C/O ALBANY MOLECULAR RESEARCH, INC., 26 CORPORATE CIRCLE, ALBANY NY 12212-5098
Stefanie L. Cavanaugh director 1120 S CAPITAL OF TX HWY, BLDG 1, STE 300, AUSTIN TX 78746
Ellen O'connor Vos director C/O NTELOS HOLDINGS CORP., 1154 SHENANDOAH VILLAGE DRIVE, WAYNESBORO VA 22980
Jack W Schuler 10 percent owner 100 N. FIELD DRIVE, SUITE 360, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Ryan Thinh Phan officer: CSO & COO 327 CARLTON AVE, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Jannie Prestridge Herchuk director 6331 LAVENDALE AVE, DALLAS TX 75230
Winfred Parnell director 6734 TALMADGE LANE, DALLAS TX 75230
Marlene Mclennan officer: Interim Chief Financial Office 400 SOUTH AUSTRALIAN AVENUE, SUITE 800, WEST PALM BEACH FL 33401
Ruby Sharma director 24 ARNOLD DRIVE, PRINCETON JCT. NJ 08550
Robert D Auerbach director C/O THE COOPER COMPANIES, INC., SUITE 590, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Valerie Barber Palmieri director, officer: President and CEO 63 INDIAN LEDGE RD., MONROE CT 06468