Panera Bread Co (Panera Bread Co) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $94.31 (As of Apr. 26, 2024)

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What is Panera Bread Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-26), Panera Bread Co's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $94.31.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Panera Bread Co's Predictability Rank is Not Rated. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Panera Bread Co is -233.93%.

The industry rank for Panera Bread Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

PNRA's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Restaurants industry.
Industry Median: 1.15
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Panera Bread Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Panera Bread Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Panera Bread Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Panera Bread Co Annual Data

Trend

Dec07

Dec08

Dec09

Dec10

Dec11

Dec12

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

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49.83

58.73

44.07

39.45

85.79

Panera Bread Co Quarterly Data
	Jun12	Sep12	Dec12	Mar13	Jun13	Sep13	Dec13	Mar14	Jun14	Sep14	Dec14	Mar15	Jun15	Sep15	Dec15	Mar16	Jun16	Sep16	Dec16	Mar17
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															44.56	59.65	67.45	85.79	87.45

Competitive Comparison of Panera Bread Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the Restaurants subindustry, Panera Bread Co's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Panera Bread Co's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the Restaurants Industry

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Panera Bread Co's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Panera Bread Co's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

Panera Bread Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.66%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Panera Bread Co's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 3 years was 0.00%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $8.172.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Panera Bread Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

8.172

11.5406

94.31

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(94.31	-	314.93)	/	94.31
	=	-233.93 %

Panera Bread Co (NAS:PNRA) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Panera Bread Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

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Panera Bread Co (Panera Bread Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Panera Bread Co (NAS:PNRA) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.panerabread.com

Panera Bread Co Inc owns and franchises bakery cum cafes various locations in the United States and Canada. These cafes are operated under the brand's names Panera Bread, Saint Louis Bread Co., and Paradise Bakery & CafÃ©. Their menu offerings include baked goods, sandwiches, soups, pasta dishes, salads, and cafe beverages. They also provide catering services by the Panera brand that offer breakfast assortments, sandwiches, salads, soups, pasta dishes, drinks, and bakery items. Segments through which business is conducted include company Bakery-Cafe Operations segment, Franchise Operations segment, and Fresh Dough and Other Product Operations segment. Revenues are generated from bakery cum cafe sales, royalties and fees from franchises, and fresh dough and other product sales.

Executives

Diane Hessan	director	2 BATTERY WHARF, #2510, BOSTON MA 02109
James D White	director	C/O CAVA GROUP, INC., 202-400-2920 14 RIDGE SQUARE NW, SUITE 5, WASHINGTON DC 20016
Thomas E Lynch	director	382 GREENWICH AVE, SUITE ONE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Andrew H Madsen	officer: President	520 ZANG ST., UNIT D, BROOMFIELD CO 80021
Louis Dipietro	officer: SVP, General Counsel	35 PARK STREET, NORFOLK MA 02056
Jeffrey W Kip	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	3630 SOUTH GEYER ROAD, SUITE 100, ST LOUIS MO 63127
Patricia Gray	officer: SVP, Chief Legal Officer	C/O AMERICAN SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING INC, 829 MIDDLESEX TURNPIKE, BILLERICA MA 01821
Yanofsky Neal	officer: President	6710 CLAYTON ROAD RICHMOND HEIGHTS MO 63117