Weyerhaeuser Co (Weyerhaeuser Co) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) : $13.70 (As of Apr. 26, 2024)

View and export this data going back to 1963. Start your Free Trial

What is Weyerhaeuser Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)?

As of today (2024-04-26), Weyerhaeuser Co's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model is $13.70.

Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Weyerhaeuser Co's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (FCF Based) using Discounted Cash Flow model for Weyerhaeuser Co is -127.37%.

The industry rank for Weyerhaeuser Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:

WY's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked ^*
in the REITs industry.
Industry Median: 1.13
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.

Weyerhaeuser Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Weyerhaeuser Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Weyerhaeuser Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart

Weyerhaeuser Co Annual Data

Trend

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Get a 7-Day Free Trial

Weyerhaeuser Co Quarterly Data
	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Weyerhaeuser Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

For the REIT - Specialty subindustry, Weyerhaeuser Co's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Weyerhaeuser Co's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) Distribution in the REITs Industry

For the REITs industry and Real Estate sector, Weyerhaeuser Co's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Weyerhaeuser Co's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.

Weyerhaeuser Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.

Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.68%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 7.20%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Weyerhaeuser Co's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 7.20%, which is between 5% and 20%. => GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 7.20%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $1.029.
However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Weyerhaeuser Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	=	Free Cash Flow per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.072)/(1+0.11) = 0.96576576576577
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Free Cash Flow per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Free Cash Flow per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

1.029

13.3178

13.70

Margin of Safety (FCF Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)
	=	(13.7	-	31.15)	/	13.7
	=	-127.37 %

Weyerhaeuser Co (NYSE:WY) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about the DCF model:

1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Weyerhaeuser Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Weyerhaeuser Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Weyerhaeuser Co (Weyerhaeuser Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Weyerhaeuser Co (NYSE:WY) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WHC:Germany WHC:Germany

Address

220 Occidental Avenue South, Seattle, WA, USA, 98104-7800

Website

https://www.weyerhaeuser.com

Weyerhaeuser ranks among the world's largest forest product companies. Following the 2016 sale of its pulp business to International Paper, Weyerhaeuser operates three business segments: timberlands, wood products, and real estate. Weyerhaeuser is structured as a real estate investment trust and is not required to pay federal income taxes on earnings generated by timber harvest activities. Earnings from its wood products segment are subject to federal income tax. Weyerhaeuser acquired fellow timber REIT Plum Creek in 2016.

Executives

David M Wold	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Keith O'rear	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Denise M Merle	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Devin W Stockfish	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
James Calvin O'rourke	director	C/O THE MOSAIC COMPANY, 101 EAST KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 2500, TAMPA FL 33602
Albert Monaco	director	#3000, 425 - 1ST STREET SW, CALGARY A0 T2P 3L8
Travis A Keatley	officer: Senior Vice President	220 OCCIDENTAL AVE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Adrian M Blocker	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Nancy S. Loewe	officer: Senior Vice President and CFO	351 PHELPS DRIVE, IRVING TX 75038
Russell S Hagen	officer: Senior Vice President and CFO	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Deidra C Merriwether	director	100 GRAINGER PARKWAY, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Nicole Weyerhaeuser Piasecki	director	2000 WELLS FARGO PLACE, 30 EAST 7TH STREET, SAINT PAUL MN 55101-4930
James A Kilberg	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Marc F Racicot	director	1411 E. MISSION AVENUE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Lawrence A Selzer	director	C/O WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY, 220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104