Graham Holdings Co (Graham Holdings Co) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) : $389.89 (As of May. 16, 2024)

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What is Graham Holdings Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)?

As of today (2024-05-16), Graham Holdings Co's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend model is $389.89.

Note: Discounted Dividend model is only suitable for companies who have a consistant distribution history. If the company's dividends does not remain steady over a long period, results may not be accurate due to the low consistency. The model is also only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star) with dividend payments. If the company's Predictability Rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, or if the company does not pay dividend, the data will not be stored into our database.

Graham Holdings Co's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based) using Discounted Dividend Model for Graham Holdings Co is -96.21%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Graham Holdings Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) or its related term are showing as below:

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Dividends Based) Ratio of Graham Holdings Co was 5.64. The lowest was 0.00. And the median was 4.01.

GHC's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) is not ranked ^*
in the Education industry.
Industry Median: 0.66
* Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) only.

Graham Holdings Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Graham Holdings Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Graham Holdings Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Chart

Graham Holdings Co Annual Data

Trend

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Dec23

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

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Graham Holdings Co Quarterly Data
	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22	Mar23	Jun23	Sep23	Dec23	Mar24
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	Get a 7-Day Free Trial															-	-	-	-	-

Competitive Comparison of Graham Holdings Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

For the Education & Training Services subindustry, Graham Holdings Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Graham Holdings Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) Distribution in the Education Industry

For the Education industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Graham Holdings Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Graham Holdings Co's Price-to-DCF (Dividends Based) falls into.

Graham Holdings Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Dividend Model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except adjusted dividend are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DDM calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 11%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 4.38%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Dividend Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year Dividend Growth Rate. In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year Dividend Growth Rate. If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year Dividend Growth Rate.
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=> Graham Holdings Co's average Dividend Growth Rate in the past 5 years was 4.40%, which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Dividends per Share: adjusted dividends per share = $33.7842.
GuruFocus uses adjusted dividends per share by default to ensure that the valuation reflects the total value of the company, as the actual dividend is only a portion of the total value.

All of the default settings can be changed in the DCF calculator and the results are calculated automatically.

Graham Holdings Co's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	=	Dividends per Share	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.11) = 0.94594594594595
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.11) = 0.93693693693694

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Dividends per Share

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

Dividends per Share

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

33.7842

11.5406

389.89

Margin of Safety % (DCF Dividends Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)
	=	(389.89	-	765.02)	/	389.89
	=	-96.21 %

Graham Holdings Co (NYSE:GHC) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book per Share, Graham Number, Median PS Value etc, discounted Dividends model evaluates the companies based on their power of future dividend distribution instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Dividends model:

1. The Discounted Dividends model evaluates a company based on its future dividends distribution power
2. Dividend growth is taken into account; therefore a company with a higher dividend growth rate is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies with consistently steady dividends distributed.
4. The Discounted Dividends model works poorly for inconsistent dividends distributor like high growth companies.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less dividends distributed.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Graham Holdings Co Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based) Related Terms

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Graham Holdings Co (Graham Holdings Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Education » Graham Holdings Co (NYSE:GHC) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Dividends Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WPOB:Germany

Address

1300 North 17th Street, 17th Floor, Arlington, VA, USA, 22209

Website

https://www.ghco.com

Graham Holdings Co. is a diversified education and media company made up of subsidiaries. Firm operations include educational services; television broadcasting; online, print, and local news; home health and hospice care; and manufacturing. The Company segments into the following seven reportable segments: Kaplan International, Higher Education, Supplemental Education, Television Broadcasting, Manufacturing, Healthcare, and Automotive. The majority of revenue comes from the Kaplan International segment, which includes higher education, test preparation, language instruction, and professional training. A large portion of company revenue also comes from the television broadcasting segment through advertising.

Executives

Thomas Sinnickson Gayner	director	C/O MARKEL CORP, 4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Tony Allen	director	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS 1300 NORTH 17TH ST., SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Timothy J O'shaughnessy	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS COMPANY, 1300 NORTH 17TH STREET, SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Marcel A. Snyman	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS 1300 NORTH 17TH ST., SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Danielle Y. Conley	director	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS 1300 NORTH 17TH ST., SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Christopher C Davis	director	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS COMPANY, 1300 NORTH 17TH STREET, SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Sandra M. Stonesifer	officer: VP, Chief HR Officer	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS 1300 NORTH 17TH ST., SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Jack A. Markell	director	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS 1300 NORTH 17TH ST., SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Andrew Stephen Rosen	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS 1300 NORTH 17TH ST, SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Lee C Bollinger	director	535 WEST 116TH STREET, LOW LIBRARY, ROOM 202, NEW YORK NY 10027
Katharine Weymouth	director	1300 NORTH 17TH STREET, SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Anne M Mulcahy	director	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS 1300 NORTH 17TH ST, SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Jacob Maas,	officer: Sr. VP-Planning and Dev.	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS COMPANY, 1300 NORTH 17TH STREET, SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Denise M Demeter	officer: VP and Chief HR Officer	1300 17TH STREET NORTH, SUITE 1700, ROSSLYN VA 22209
Donald Graham	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and COB	C/O GRAHAM HOLDINGS COMPANY, 1300 NORTH 17TH STREET, SUITE 1700, ARLINGTON VA 22209