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Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2024-04-28), Natera's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $-16.46. The stock price of Natera is $91.66. Therefore, Natera's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.0.
The historical rank and industry rank for Natera's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
The historical data trend for Natera's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Natera Annual Data | |||||||||||||||||||||
Trend | Dec14 | Dec15 | Dec16 | Dec17 | Dec18 | Dec19 | Dec20 | Dec21 | Dec22 | Dec23 | |||||||||||
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | -4.90 | -5.93 | -9.46 | -14.51 | -16.46 |
Natera Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Mar19 | Jun19 | Sep19 | Dec19 | Mar20 | Jun20 | Sep20 | Dec20 | Mar21 | Jun21 | Sep21 | Dec21 | Mar22 | Jun22 | Sep22 | Dec22 | Mar23 | Jun23 | Sep23 | Dec23 | |
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | -14.51 | -14.43 | -15.33 | -14.53 | -16.46 |
For the Diagnostics & Research subindustry, Natera's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Medical Diagnostics & Research industry and Healthcare sector, Natera's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Natera's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + 0.8 * Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
In the case of negative Total Stockholders Equity, the following formula is used (see Explanation section below for the reason):
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF = ( Growth Multiple * Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) + Total Stockholders Equity (most recent) / 0.8 ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
Add all the Free Cash Flow together and divide 6 will get Natera's Free Cash Flow(6 year avg) = $-242.47.
Natera's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for today is calculated as
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF | = | (Growth Multiple | * | Free Cash Flow (6 year avg) | + | Total Stockholders Equity (Dec23) | * | 0.8) | / | Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) |
= | (10.623553629896 | * | -242.47296 | + | 765.327 | * | 0.8) | / | 119.311 | |
= | -16.46 |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Natera (NAS:NTRA) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Natera's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF | = | Share Price | / | Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF |
= | 91.66 | / | -16.458355846147 | |
= |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Natera's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Michael Burkes Brophy | officer: Chief Financial Officer | 201 INDUSTRIAL ROAD, SUITE 410, SAN CARLOS CA 94070 |
Steven Leonard Chapman | officer: Chief Operating Officer | 201 INDUSTRIAL ROAD, SUITE 410, SAN CARLOS CA 94070 |
Daniel Rabinowitz | officer: CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER | C/O NATERA, INC., 13011 MCCALLEN PASS BUILDING A SUITE 100, AUSTIN TX 78753 |
Jonathan Sheena | director, officer: Chief Technology Officer | C/O NATERA, INC., 201 INDUSTRIAL ROAD, SUITE 410, SAN CARLOS CA 94070 |
James Healy | director | 3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 4-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
Gail Boxer Marcus | director | 201 INDUSTRIAL ROAD, SUITE 410, SAN CARLOS CA 94070 |
Rowan E Chapman | director | 201 INDUSTRIAL ROAD, SUITE 410, SAN CARLOS CA 94070 |
Matthew Rabinowitz | director, officer: Chief Executive Officer | C/O NATERA, INC., 201 INDUSTRIAL ROAD, SUITE 410, SAN CARLOS CA 94070 |
Brinkley Ruth Williams | director | C/O TRAVERE THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3611 VALLEY CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
Robert Alan Schueren | officer: Chief Operating Officer | 7400 PASEO PADRE PARKWAY, FREMONT CA 94555 |
Roelof Botha | director | C/O SEQUOIA CAPITAL, 2800 SAND HILL RD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
Herm Rosenman | officer: Chief Financial Officer | OXFORD IMMUNOTEC GLOBAL PLC, 94C INNOVATION DRIVE, HILTON PARK, SAN DIEGO X0 OX14 4RZ |
Todd C Cozzens | director | ONE FEDERAL STREET, 25TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110 |
Monica Bertagnolli | director | C/O LEAP THERAPEUTICS, INC., 47 THORNDIKE STREET, SUITE B1-1, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141 |
Roy D. Baynes | director | C/O RETROPHIN, INC., 12255 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
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