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Aecon Group (TSX:ARE) Beneish M-Score : -2.58 (As of Apr. 26, 2024)


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What is Aecon Group Beneish M-Score?

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.58 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for Aecon Group's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

TSX:ARE' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.76   Med: -2.65   Max: -2.01
Current: -2.58

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of Aecon Group was -2.01. The lowest was -2.76. And the median was -2.65.


Aecon Group Beneish M-Score Historical Data

The historical data trend for Aecon Group's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Aecon Group Beneish M-Score Chart

Aecon Group Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Beneish M-Score
Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.57 -2.72 -2.19 -2.01 -2.58

Aecon Group Quarterly Data
Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24
Beneish M-Score Get a 7-Day Free Trial Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only -2.44 -2.27 -2.29 -2.58 -

Competitive Comparison of Aecon Group's Beneish M-Score

For the Engineering & Construction subindustry, Aecon Group's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Aecon Group's Beneish M-Score Distribution in the Construction Industry

For the Construction industry and Industrials sector, Aecon Group's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Aecon Group's Beneish M-Score falls into.



Aecon Group Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of Aecon Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1.0959+0.528 * 1.3081+0.404 * 1.8415+0.892 * 0.9098+0.115 * 1.2723
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9773+4.679 * -0.026746-0.327 * 0.8659
=-2.02

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Mar24) TTM:Last Year (Mar23) TTM:
Total Receivables was C$1,735 Mil.
Revenue was 846.592 + 1130.185 + 1239.584 + 1166.918 = C$4,383 Mil.
Gross Profit was 62.786 + 97.95 + 45.7 + 45.143 = C$252 Mil.
Total Current Assets was C$2,283 Mil.
Total Assets was C$3,047 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was C$297 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was C$75 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was C$176 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was C$1,680 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was C$183 Mil.
Net Income was -6.117 + 9.695 + 133.425 + 28.208 = C$165 Mil.
Non Operating Income was 3.471 + -5.855 + 143.368 + 74.843 = C$216 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was -149.921 + 176.527 + 110.631 + -106.367 = C$31 Mil.
Total Receivables was C$1,740 Mil.
Revenue was 1107.155 + 1266.784 + 1320.514 + 1123.238 = C$4,818 Mil.
Gross Profit was 66.833 + 98.704 + 118.632 + 77.529 = C$362 Mil.
Total Current Assets was C$3,049 Mil.
Total Assets was C$3,623 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was C$273 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was C$94 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was C$198 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was C$2,392 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was C$166 Mil.




1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(1735.458 / 4383.279) / (1740.467 / 4817.691)
=0.395927 / 0.361266
=1.0959

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(361.698 / 4817.691) / (251.579 / 4383.279)
=0.075077 / 0.057395
=1.3081

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (2283.196 + 296.584) / 3046.713) / (1 - (3048.898 + 272.597) / 3623.023)
=0.153258 / 0.083226
=1.8415

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=4383.279 / 4817.691
=0.9098

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(94.203 / (94.203 + 272.597)) / (75.006 / (75.006 + 296.584))
=0.256824 / 0.201852
=1.2723

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(175.676 / 4383.279) / (197.566 / 4817.691)
=0.040079 / 0.041008
=0.9773

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((182.875 + 1679.518) / 3046.713) / ((165.74 + 2391.983) / 3623.023)
=0.611279 / 0.705964
=0.8659

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(165.211 - 215.827 - 30.87) / 3046.713
=-0.026746

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Aecon Group has a M-score of -2.02 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.


Aecon Group Beneish M-Score Related Terms

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Aecon Group (TSX:ARE) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
20 Carlson Court, Suite 105, Toronto, ON, CAN, M9W 7K6
Aecon Group Inc is a Canada-based company that operates in two segments: Construction and Concessions. The Construction segment includes various aspects of the construction of public and private infrastructure projects, mainly in the transportation sector. Its concessions segment is engaged in the development, financing, construction, and operation of infrastructure projects. The company generates the majority of its revenue from the Construction segment.
Executives
Martina Doyle Senior Officer