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TurnOnGreen (TurnOnGreen) Predictability Rank


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What is TurnOnGreen Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TurnOnGreen Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

TurnOnGreen Predictability Rank Related Terms

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TurnOnGreen (TurnOnGreen) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » TurnOnGreen Inc (OTCPK:TOGI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NXU KRFG POLA BSTK PWDY CAPC DLYT COUV QBAK OZSC SZSE:300750 XSWX:ABBN BKK:DELTA TSE:6503 XPAR:LR SZSE:300124 XKRX:247540 SZSE:300274 VRT HUBB
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1421 McCarthy Boulevard, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 95035
Website
https://www.turnongreen.com
TurnOnGreen Inc is a company that designs and manufactures innovative, feature-rich, and top-quality power products for mission-critical applications, lifesaving and sustaining applications spanning multiple sectors in the harshest environments. The diverse markets it serves include defense and aerospace, medical and healthcare, industrial, telecommunications and e-Mobility.
Executives
Bitnile Holdings, Inc. 10 percent owner 11411 SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS PARKWAY, SUITE 240, LAS VEGAS NV 89141
Amos Kohn director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 48430 LAKEVIEW BLVD., C/O DIGITAL POWER CORP, FREMONT CA 94538
Douglas Gintz director, officer: Chief Technology Officer C/O TURNONGREEN, INC., 1421 MCCARTHY BLVD., MILPITAS CA 95035
Marcus Charuvastra officer: President 2980 BEVERLY GLEN CIR.,, STE 100, LOS ANGELES CA 90077
Henry Carl Nisser director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 100 PARK AVENUE, SUITE 1658A, NEW YORK NY 10017
David J Katzoff officer: CFO, Secretary, Treasurer 201 SHIPYARD WAY, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92663
Kristie Andreula officer: Chief R and D Officer 30 N GOULD STREET, SUITE 11023, SHERIDAN WY 82801
Vincent Andruela director, officer: CEO, CFO, and President 30 N GOULD STREET, SUITE 11023, SHERIDAN WY 82801
Michael Andreula officer: Chief Marketing Officer 30 N GOULD STREET, SUITE 11023, SHERIDAN WY 82801
Karada Ltd 10 percent owner TRUST COMPANY COMPLEX, AJELTAKE ROAD, AJELTAKE, MAJURO 1T MAJURO
Lars Brannvall director, officer: President, CEO, CFO, Secretary SUITE 5.18, MLS BUSINESS CENTRE, 130 SHAFTESBURY AVENUE, LONDON X0 W1D 5EU
Colour Industry Inc. 10 percent owner PRASANMITR THANI TOWER, SUITE 2404, 41 SUKHUMVIT SOI 23, KLONGTOEY NUA, WATTANA, BANGKOK W1 10110
Coloured Industry Technology Partnership 2 Llp 10 percent owner 4 BEDFORD ROW, LONDON X0 WC1R 4DF
Mobile Warrior Technology Partnership Llp 10 percent owner 4 BEDFORD ROW, LONDON X0 WC1R 4DF