What is BridgeBio Pharma Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
BridgeBio Pharma Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
BridgeBio Pharma (BridgeBio Pharma) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
3160 Porter Drive, Suite 250, Palo Alto, CA, USA, 94304
BridgeBio Pharma Inc is involved in identifying advance transformative medicines to treat patients who suffer from Mendelian diseases, which are diseases that arise from defects in a single gene, and cancers with clear genetic drivers. Its product pipeline categories include Mendelian, Genetic Dermatology, Oncology, and Gene therapy. The company focus on genetic diseases because they exist at the intersection of high unmet patient need and tractable biology.
Executives
| Hannah Valantine |
director |
1305 O'BRIEN DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Frank Mccormick |
officer: Chairman of Oncology |
C/O UCSF, 1450 3RD STREET, RM HD-371, SAN FRANCISCO CA 941439001 |
| Randal W Scott |
director |
171 MAIN STREET #225, LOS ALTOS CA 94022 |
| Neil Kumar |
director, officer: See Remarks |
C/O BRIDGEBIO PHARMA, INC., 3160 PORTER DR, STE 250, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
| Brian C Stephenson |
officer: See Remarks |
3160 PORTER DR, STE 250, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
| Viking Global Opportunities Parent Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Viking Global Investors Lp |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Douglas A. Dachille |
director |
175 WATER STREET, NEW YORK NY 10038 |
| Andrew Lo |
director |
C/O ALPHASIMPLEX GROUP, LLC, ONE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, 9TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Ronald J Daniels |
director |
C/O MOORE CORPORATION LIMITED, ONE CANTERBURY GREEN, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Fred Hassan |
director |
C/O CARET GROUP,, 1100 HOLLAND DR., BOCA RATON FL 33487 |
| James C Momtazee |
director |
2884 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Brent L Saunders |
director |
2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD, C/O SCHERING PLOUGH CORP, KENILWORTH NJ 07033 |
| Andrea Ellis |
director |
C/O BRIDGEBIO PHARMA, INC., 421 KIPLING STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94301 |
| Richard H Scheller |
director, officer: See Remarks |
C/O GENENTECH INC, 1 DNA WAY MS 49, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080-4990 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
BBIO has been successfully added to your